We have back-to-back numbered events as the UFC travels to Sydney, Australia. Last week, I picked 7 out of 11 fights correctly, which isn’t terrible, but I’m aiming to be much more accurate with UFC 325. Below, I’ll break down the entire card —starting with quick looks at the prelims and building toward a full breakdown of the main event. Full transparency: I haven’t been keeping up with the Road to UFC fights, so I’ll only touch very briefly on the first four bouts. As always, if you’re just here for the picks, feel free to scroll ahead — I don’t want to waste your time. Final picks will be clearly marked in bold after each breakdown.
Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar
The first Road to UFC title fight takes place in the flyweight division. Aaron Tau previously competed on DWCS, where he lost a decision to Elijah Smith. Smith has translated well to the UFC, which makes Tau’s level of experience more impressive in hindsight. Tau also trains at a great gym in City Kickboxing. He has shown strong durability, going the distance against decent competition. On the other side, Namsrai Batbayer has yet to go the distance in any of his professional fights and is super dangerous wherever the fight takes place. Despite that, I’m siding with Tau’s durability and experience here. I think he survives the early danger, outlasts Batbayar, and finds a late TKO.
Final Pick: Aaron Tau by KO/TKO
Sulangrangbo vs Lawrence Lui
The next Road to UFC finale takes place in the bantamweight division, as the 20-year-old striker Sulangrangbo takes on Lawrence Lui. From what I have seen, Sulangrangbo has been very impressive— his striking looks incredibly clean for such a young fighter. He uses his footwork and speed to outclass opponents on the feet. His opponent, Lawrence Lui trains at City Kickboxing and seems to have solid wrestling, which he has used effectively in his recent performances. However, Lui is hittable on the feet, and I think Sulangrangbo capitalizes by finding the knockout.
Final Pick: Sulangrangbo by KO/TKO
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay
Another Road to UFC matchup takes place in the featherweight division. Keiichiro Nakamura appears to be the more active striker, throwing a high volume of kicks and defending takedowns extremely well. His opponent, Sebastian Szalay, will be fighting in his home country and will have the crowd on his side. Szalay is the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup, with some grappling upside. I think he gets this done by mixing things up, making this fight a bit dirtier and utilizing his well-rounded skill set to secure the win.
Final Pick: Sebastian Szalay by Decision
Sangwook Kim vs Dom Mar Fan
The final Road to UFC matchup will be in the lightweight division. The older guy in this fight is Sangwook Kim, who applies constant pressure and wears down his opponents over time. He excels at smothering fighters from top position and has shown strong durability, having never been finished. On the other side, Dom Mar Fan has only lost to the up-and-coming lightweight contender Quillan Sallkilld. Mar Fan prefers to wrestle, but I think Kim’s pace will be too much for him. I see Sangwook Kim outworking Mar Fan with his cardio and finding a submission from the top position in the later rounds.
Final Pick: Sangwook Kim by Submission
Kaan Ofli vs Yizha
Moving into the actual UFC fights on the prelims, Kaan Ofli enters this matchup coming off his first UFC win. He’s a decent grappler, but that might be the only thing he is good at. If he isn’t able to get a submission, it’s hard to see a clear path of victory for him. He’ll be facing Yizha, who is also coming off of his first UFC win. Yizha is the more polished striker in this matchup, and he should be able to hold his own in the grappling. Because of that, I am going to side with Yizha, as he has more ways to win here.
Final Pick: Yizha by KO/TKO
Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott
Now this is an extremely close and competitive fight in my eyes. Jonathan Micallef looks like a very good fighter, throwing heavy kicks while also having the ability to mix in grappling. He won his only UFC bout as an underdog against Kevin Jousset, and showed just how dangerous his kicks can be. I think Micallef has the potential to become a strong contender in the welterweight division, but he faces a tough test here in Oban Elliot. Elliott is coming off a rough performance last year against Seokhyeon Ko, where he was badly out grappled. That said, he’s still a very capable striker and a tough opponent. Even so, I am going to side with Micallef here. I really like his grappling upside, especially after Elliott’s last performance where he exposed some holes in his ground game.
Final Pick: Jonathan Micallef by Decision
Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney
This matchup features two wrestlers facing off against each other. Jacob Malkoun is the more experienced guy in this one but hasn’t fought since he knocked Andre Petroski out with his literal hip. While Malkoun is primarily a wrestler who likes to get the fight to the ground, he actually holds the striking advantage here. Torrez Finney will likely look to come in and focus on control, aiming to hold Malkoun down the entire time. All things considered, I just have to side with Jacob Malkoun. I expect him to do more meaningful damage on the feet, which should stand out to the judges more than control time alone.
Final Pick: Jacob Malkoun by Decision
Cam Rowston Cody Brundage
I will be honest— Cam Rowston has proven me wrong, as I’ve picked against him in his last two fights. He’s used his height and reach advantage extremely well while maintaining an impressive pace and volume. Training out of City Kickboxing, Rowston continues to improve his overall skill set. He’ll be facing Cody Brundage, who has plenty of UFC experience and a guy that will likely lean on his wrestling in this matchup. However, Brundage tends slowdown as the fight progresses. I expect Rowston to survive the early wrestling pressure and begin to take over as the fight goes on, using his striking from range and constant output.
Final Pick: Cam Rowston by KO/TKO
Junior Tafa vs Billy Elekana
I am beyond surprised that Junior Tafa is still on the UFC roster. I initially thought that the move down to light heavyweight was a good decision for him, but then he got submitted by Tuco Tokkas of all people. Tafa is a decent kickboxer with big power, but his ground game is abysmal, which is a major issue at this level of MMA. Billy Elekana should be able to win this fight by immediately implementing his grappling. While Elekana usually prefers to strike, doing so would only give Tafa opportunities. The clear game plan is to take Tafa down and hunt for a submission, which I think Elekana eventually secures.
Final Pick: Billy Elekana by Submission
Quillan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey
Kicking off the main card, we get an all-Austrailian matchup as the seemingly unstoppable contender Quillan Salkilld takes on Jaimie Mullarkey. Salkilld enters this fight as a rising star, coming off an absolutely brutal head kick knockout of Nasrat Haqparast. He’s a well-rounded fighter who is dangerous on the feet and capable of mixing in his wrestling— he truly does it all. On the other side, Jaimie Mullarkey has shown issues with durability, having been knocked out six times in his career. I see Salkilled holding the edge in every area, with advantages in striking, power, and even grappling. I’m expecting a big finish from Quillan Salkilld.
Final Pick: Quillan Salkilld by KO/TKO
Tai Tuivasa vs Tallison Texeira
The only heavyweight bout of the night features the return of Tai Tuivasa, who has not won a fight since 2022. Tuivasa was once an absolute beast, knocking out nearly everyone in his path. Unfortunatley, he’s now on a five-fight losing streak and doesn’t look like the same fighter he once was. While Tuivasa always carries a puncher’s chance, I don’t see much beyond that. Tallison Texeira should be able to control this fight from start to finish, with kicks and knees to the body playing a major role. Although Texeira was caught by Derrick Lewis in his last outing, I don’t see it happening again in this one.
Final Pick: Tallison Texeira by KO/TKO
Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy
I can’t wait for this matchup between two unbelievably talented strikers. Rafael Fiziev is a violent Muay Thai striker with a wealth of UFC experience, and I expect him to come into this fight with a kick-heavy game plan. He should have success attacking the lead leg of Mauricio Ruffy, who fights out of a very wide stance. We’ve also seen Fiziev mix in his wrestling in recent bouts, and he could use that here to at least force Ruffy to think about the takedown.
On the other side is Mauricio Ruffy, one of my favorite fighters—so I’ll try my best to stay unbiased. Ruffy is a well-rounded striker with clean hands and dynamic kicks, his range management and movement can be extremely frustrating for opponents. However, we saw in his last fight that the takedown threat can cause him to freeze up. In this matchup, I believe Ruffy holds the boxing advantage. His ability to land uppercuts from range could pose serious problems for Fiziev.
Ultimately, I think Fiziev may rely a bit too much on his toughness in this fight. Ruffy is a sniper and will likely find a home for his dangerous left hand. I don’t expect the takedown threat to be as much of an issue this time around, and I think Ruffy will fight with less hesitation. I can see him finding a finish in the third round after landing some nasty, fight altering shots.
Final Pick: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO
Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint Denis
Now we move into the co-main event between two of the toughest and most violent men in the sport. Starting the breakdown with Dan Hooker, the longtime UFC veteran. He’s not the most technical fighter, but every time he steps into the Octagon he’s there to scrap. Hooker is a striker who has been involved in some incredibly entertaining fights over the years, and he does have the tools to give someone like Benoit Saint Denis problems. I think his knees could be an effective weapon in helping stifle the takedowns that Benoit will inevitably attempt. That said, Hooker is coming off a rough submission loss to Arman Tsarukyan just a couple months ago. I’m not sure why he kept jumping guillotine in that fight, but if he makes the same mistake here, we could very well see a similar outcome.
Hooker’s opponent is Benoit Saint Denis who clearly holds the grappling advantage. The game plan for BSD should be straightforward: close the distance, grab hold of Hooker, and get the fight to the ground as soon as possible. He should not fall for the trap of trading with Hooker on the feet, even though BSD is extremely tough in his own right and does carry some power as a striker. Overall, I have to lean toward Benoit Saint Denis as he has more paths to victory. With that said, this could still turn into a very competitive fight, especially if Hooker is able to stuff a few takedown attempts to keep the fight standing.
Final Pick: Benoit Saint Denis by Decision
Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes
This is the rematch that nobody asked for, but it should still be a very entertaining fight. I picked Alexander Volkanovski to win the first matchup, and he did, controlling most of the minutes and showing why he is one of the highest-level fighters in the sport. However, this second meeting still feels interesting.
Volk is 37 years old, which is always a concern, but his skill set will always remain incredibly well rounded. He can wrestle, grapple, strike, and make any adjustments based on his opponent. In the first fight, he was able to outclass Diego Lopes on the feet despite being the shorter fighter. Even though Lopes had the height and reach advantage, Volk actually fought better at range, using his speed, footwork and timing to win most exchanges. His hand speed stood out, and he consistently found clean counters when Lopes tried to close distance to land his own shots. It is also important to note that Volk was effective in the clinch.
Lopes is still a very dangerous fighter, especially as a striker. We saw him knock down Volk in their first fight, and he’s coming off a spinning elbow knockout of Jean Silva. His power is legit, as he can send guys literally flying across the Octagon with one shot. While it doesn’t always show up, his submissions and ground-and-pound are also real threats. In the first fight, Lopes seemed to wait for Volk to make a mistake instead of forcing the action, which isn’t a great approach against someone as disciplined as Volkanovski. One adjustment he needs to make is throwing more kicks. As the longer fighter, his kicks can be very effective, and attacking Volk’s legs could help slow down his movement. We saw Lopes use more low kicks in the first round against Jean Silva, so I expect that to be a bigger part of the gameplan here.
Overall, I still think Volk is the better fighter and will win a majority of the minutes in this fight. However, I also believe Lopes learned a lot from the first meeting. The low kicks should be there and if he commits to them early, it can take away some of Volk’s speed as the fight progresses. When you factor in Lopes’ durability and finishing potential against an aging Volkanovski— I think the opportunity for a finish is real. I’m taking Diego Lopes to get the job done this weekend.
Final Pick: Diego Lopes by KO/TKO
