The UFC is back in the U.S. with a Fight Night in Seattle. I’ll be honest—outside of the main event, this isn’t my favorite card in the world—but I still expect plenty of entertaining fights, especially since Seattle cards tend to deliver. Last week I went 9–4, which is solid, but I was pretty disappointed overall, particularly with the main event decision. I thought Lerone Murphy did enough to win, or at the very least it could have been scored a draw, so seeing the judges give it to Evloev was surprising. Looking to tighten things up this week and put together some stronger predictions, let’s get into the fights—from the early prelim opener all the way to the main event—with my final picks clearly marked in bold after each analysis.
Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil
This is a rematch in the strawweight division, as Alexia Thainara looks to avenge the only loss of her professional career, which came early on against Bruna Brasil. Thainara should come into this one highly motivated, but more importantly, she appears to be in a much better place in her development now, with noticeable improvements across her overall game. She is aggressive on the feet, carries some power, and has also shown clear growth in her grappling, making her a much more complete fighter than she was in their first meeting.
Bruna Brasil, meanwhile, has struggled with activity in her fights, often losing key minutes by not throwing enough or asserting herself consistently. While I’ve been high on her potential in the past, that lack of output is a real concern in a matchup like this against a more active opponent. I expect Thainara to press the pace, do more damage on the feet, and simply win the more meaningful exchanges throughout the fight. Given the improvements she’s made since their first bout, I think she gets her revenge here by outworking Brasil and taking a clear decision.
Final Pick: Alexia Thainara by Decision
Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez
This is one of the better fights on the card, which makes it surprising to see it placed this early. Ricky Simon, fighting near his hometown of Seattle, had an electric knockout in front of that same crowd last year. He’s a very well-rounded fighter with a pressure-heavy style, and in this matchup, I expect him to lean on his wrestling and push for takedowns. That threat alone opens things up for him on the feet, where he can capitalize when opponents are hesitant or overthinking the grappling.
Adrian Yanez, on the other hand, returns after some time away and was once one of the more hyped prospects in the division. His boxing is extremely clean and technical—it stands out immediately when you watch him—but he can be hittable defensively. Getting finished by Rob Font, who isn’t known as a heavy finisher, is a bit concerning. While Yanez should hold his own in the striking exchanges, Simon’s ability to mix in wrestling and bring constant pressure feels like the difference. I think Simon can get Yanez thinking about takedowns, create openings, and potentially land a big shot of his own, possibly leading to another knockout in front of his home crowd.
Final Pick: Ricky Simon by KO/TKO
Navajo Stirling vs Bruno Lopes
Moving on to the light heavyweight division, we have undefeated prospect Navajo Stirling, who has looked solid in his UFC run so far. His style closely mirrors Israel Adesanya’s—no surprise given their shared time at City Kickboxing—but he may be the most similar to Izzy out of that camp. While some fans have been underwhelmed by his lack of finishes, I think his performances have quietly showcased strong fight IQ and a well-rounded skill set. He does a great job fighting behind his jab, using leg kicks to chip away at opponents, and staying composed rather than forcing risky exchanges. For a relatively young and inexperienced fighter, that level of control and patience is a big positive, and the finishes should come with time—we’ve already seen that potential on the Contender Series.
He’ll be taking on Bruno Lopes, who is coming off a knockout loss to Dustin Jacoby. While that’s not the worst result given Jacoby’s striking, it does highlight that Lopes can be finished. Lopes brings power and is always looking to land big shots, but that could play right into Stirling’s style. If Stirling sticks to his game plan—controlling range, staying disciplined, and picking his spots—he should be able to frustrate Lopes and force him into more reckless exchanges. That opens the door for clean counters and potentially a statement finish. Whether he finds the knockout or not, I trust Stirling’s composure and overall skill set to carry him to a convincing win.
Final Pick: Navajo Stirling by KO/TKO
Casey O’Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes
I actually had a pretty solid breakdown written for this fight, but I lost it and don’t really feel like rewriting the whole thing. Long story short, I think Casey O’Neill’s volume and grappling control give her the edge here, as long as she can stay safe and avoid getting caught in submissions from Gabriella Fernandes.
Final Pick: Casey O’Neill by Decision
Marcin Tybura vs Tyrell Fortune
I was disappointed to see Valter Walker pull out of this matchup with Marcin Tybura, but the late replacement of Tyrell Fortune still makes things interesting. Tybura brings a strong ground game with dangerous submissions and effective ground and pound, but his striking has always been a weakness—he lacks speed and explosiveness, and if fights stay standing too long, he often struggles to keep up. On top of that, he’s getting older and doesn’t seem to have the same durability he once did, which raises concerns in a matchup like this.
Fortune, meanwhile, comes from a wrestling background, though he’ll need to be cautious engaging on the mat given Tybura’s submission threats. He also has decent power and has shown the ability to finish fights on the feet, which is key here. The biggest question mark is his level of competition, as he hasn’t faced opponents of Tybura’s caliber. Still, it’s hard to fully trust Tybura at this stage, and I think Fortune’s explosiveness and willingness to engage on the feet could give him the edge. We’ve seen Tybura get overwhelmed early before, and I think Fortune has a good chance to do the same and find a knockout.
Final Pick: Tyrell Fortune by KO/TKO
Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr.
Chase Hooper returns looking to bounce back after a tough loss to Alexander Hernandez, where he was caught and finished. Despite that setback, he does seem to be making steady improvements, particularly in his striking, though it’s still not where it needs to be to consistently win on the feet. Hooper’s path to victory remains the same—get the fight to the ground and lean on his high-level jiu-jitsu. While his takedowns aren’t always the cleanest, once he gets into grappling exchanges, he’s in his world. His ability to flow, transition, and attack submissions makes him extremely dangerous.
He faces Lance Gibson Jr., which feels like a step down in competition. Gibson made his UFC debut against Bobby Green and lost a clear decision, which isn’t the worst result given the level of opponent, but there were some concerning moments—especially being taken down by Green. That’s a major red flag in a matchup against someone like Hooper. Gibson does have decent striking and could have some success if he keeps the fight standing, but if this hits the mat at any point, it heavily favors Hooper. Ultimately, I don’t think Gibson will be able to survive in the grappling exchanges, and I expect Hooper to find a submission.
Final Pick: Chase Hooper by Submission
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev
This is an extremely fun matchup that should deliver a lot of action between two very dangerous lightweights. Ignacio Bahamondes is one of the longest fighters in the division, and he uses that range extremely well with clean, technical striking. He operates like a sniper, picking his shots carefully and countering effectively, as we saw in his performance against Manuel Torres. On top of that, he also has a solid submission game if the fight hits the ground, giving him multiple paths to a finish.
On the other side, Tofiq Musayev is at his best when he can turn fights into chaotic striking exchanges. He is explosive, throws big, wild combinations, and carries real knockout power while being capable of mixing his targets well. His UFC debut came against a very tough opponent in Myktybek Orolbai, so there’s no real shame in that setback, but it did show the level he’s stepping into. However, his aggressive style does leave openings defensively, and that’s where a more technical striker like Bahamondes can take control. I also think Bahamondes has submission upside if Musayev overcommits or gets put in bad positions on the ground. Overall, I lean toward Bahamondes to capitalize on those mistakes and potentially find a finish as Musayev pushes the pace too hard.
Final Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO
Terrance McKinnney vs Kyle Nelson
This is one of those fights where everyone expects chaos right from the opening bell. Terrance McKinney is as explosive as they come, and his fights almost always follow the same pattern—he’s either getting an early finish or he’s running into trouble if he can’t close the show quickly. McKinney is a dangerous, well-rounded fighter with sharp striking, strong wrestling, and submission ability, but his biggest issue has always been sustainability. He comes out extremely fast and powerful, which often leads to him fading quickly if the finish doesn’t materialize in that first round.
Kyle Nelson, meanwhile, has quietly put together some solid recent performances, even if the level of competition hasn’t been particularly high. He is also a well-rounded fighter, but he operates at a much slower pace than McKinney and doesn’t match his explosiveness. Nelson also hasn’t shown elite durability, which makes this a tough stylistic matchup if he gets drawn into McKinney’s early storm. While McKinney fights are always unpredictable and risky to pick, I lean toward him here simply because of the pace and power he brings early, and I think he finds another quick finish before Nelson can really settle in.
Final Pick: Terrance McKinney by KO/TKO
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Yousri Belgaroui
This is a very competitive matchup between two strong middleweight prospects, and it’s a bit surprising to see the UFC put these two together this early. Mansur Abdul-Malik is a former collegiate wrestler who brings a very explosive, athletic style into the cage, along with legit power on the feet. He has looked impressive so far, but he also hasn’t faced elite competition yet, so this is a clear step up compared to the lower-level opposition he’s been handling up to this point. His path to success here is likely tied to his wrestling and ability to impose physicality early, rather than relying purely on striking exchanges.
On the other side, Yousri Belgaroui is a former Glory kickboxer who has shared the ring with elite names like Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya, and he now even trains alongside Pereira, which speaks to the level of experience he’s been exposed to. He is also a large middleweight with a clear size and technical advantage on the feet, making him the most seasoned striker Abdul-Malik has faced in MMA. His takedown defense held up well in his last outing, which answered some lingering questions about his grappling. If Belgaroui can consistently defend the wrestling and keep this fight standing, I think his striking edge becomes very clear over time. Overall, I’m very interested in how the styles clash, but I’m leaning toward the more experienced and technically refined striker to get the win.
Final Pick: Yousri Belgaroui by KO/TKO
Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas
Next up is an interesting matchup between Julian Erosa and Lerryan Douglas. Erosa brings a ton of UFC experience and is a very dynamic, well-rounded fighter who is comfortable mixing his attacks on the feet and on the ground. He also has solid submission skills, particularly from front headlock positions, and can be dangerous if the fight hits scrambles or transitions. However, he has been finished before—even by opponents I would argue are less dangerous than Douglas—which raises questions about how he handles elite power. For Erosa, the key will be pace and cardio; he needs to drag Douglas into deeper waters, stay active, and rely on his experience to gradually take over as the fight progresses.
On the other side, Douglas makes his UFC debut with a lot of hype behind him thanks to his sharp boxing and real knockout power. He fights with an aggressive, forward-pressing style and looks to close the distance early to land something fight-ending. His shots are extremely damaging, and if he connects cleanly, he has the ability to put almost anyone out. The question is how he handles his debut against a veteran like Erosa, who can present tricky looks and push a different kind of pace. That said, Erosa’s tendency to keep his hands low and not always move his head defensively could give Douglas exactly the kind of openings he needs. I expect some early UFC jitters, but ultimately I trust Douglas’ power here, and I think he finds the knockout.
Final Pick: Lerryan Douglas by KO/TKO
Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price
I believe this is Michael Chiesa’s final fight in the UFC, retiring in front of his home crowd in Seattle. He’s been around for a long time and continues to benefit from favorable matchmaking, and this short-notice matchup feels no different. While Chiesa has decent movement on the feet, his grappling is clearly his biggest strength, and he should have a significant wrestling advantage here. On the other side, Niko Price is coming off a recent knockout loss and hasn’t looked like the same fighter in recent outings. Overall, this sets up as a relatively straightforward path for Chiesa, and it feels likely he can secure a submission to close out his career with a win.
Final Pick: Michael Chiesa by Submission
Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber
Getting into the co-main event, we’ve got a rematch in the women’s flyweight division between Alexa Grasso and Maycee Barber. Grasso comes in off a couple of losses, but it’s important to note she won their first meeting and has consistently faced higher-level competition. On the feet, she’s a sharp, technical boxer with strong defensive awareness. While she’s a capable grappler, her defensive wrestling has shown some vulnerabilities—though that’s largely come against elite opposition.
On the other side, Barber has clearly evolved since their first fight. Her pressure, pace, and overall volume are major weapons, and in WMMA, backing the fighter who throws more often can often pay off. She also brings a solid ground game; even if she doesn’t hold a major edge there, it’s another tool she can mix in effectively. Overall, Barber appears to be on the rise, while Grasso may be leveling off slightly. With her forward pressure and higher output, Barber has a strong path to winning a competitive decision on the scorecards.
Final Pick: Maycee Barber by Decision
Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer
This is a massive main event, and honestly, it’s hard not to feel like a lot is on the line for Israel Adesanya. Coming in on a three-fight losing streak and fresh off a knockout loss to Nassourdine Imavov, there’s a real sense that this could be one of his final fights in the UFC. It’s also a bit of a strange matchup—facing Joe Pyfer doesn’t do much for Adesanya’s legacy if he wins, but it presents a huge opportunity for Pyfer to make a name for himself. It almost feels like a passing-of-the-torch setup, which makes the stakes even more interesting.
Adesanya, at his best, was one of the most dominant champions we’ve seen at middleweight, and even in recent losses, he’s shown flashes of that same elite skill set. His striking remains incredibly clean and technical, built around controlling range, working behind the jab, and picking opponents apart with kicks and sharp counters. He still showed strong moments against Dricus Du Plessis before getting submitted, which suggests he’s not completely washed by any means. The concern now is durability—getting knocked out by Imavov raises real questions—but it’s worth noting that Imavov is a faster and more technical striker than Pyfer.
Joe Pyfer is dangerous in a completely different way. He has real, one-punch knockout power and doesn’t need perfect technique to end a fight—if he lands clean, it can be over instantly. That power is clearly his best path to victory here, especially early. Outside of that, his overall game is still developing. His wrestling and submissions are decent, but Adesanya has historically shown strong takedown defense and an ability to get back to his feet. The bigger concern for Pyfer is his cardio and five-round ability, which were exposed in his fight against Jack Hermansson. This is also a massive step up in competition, far beyond what he’s faced before.
While there’s definitely danger early—especially with questions about Adesanya’s chin—I see this as a step down in competition compared to the elite names he’s been facing. If he can navigate that first round, his experience, fight IQ, and conditioning should start to take over as Pyfer slows down. Over five rounds, Adesanya’s footwork, distance management, and technical striking should allow him to control the fight and pull ahead. Pyfer always has a puncher’s chance, but I’m siding with the more proven and skilled fighter to weather the storm and get the job done.
Final Pick: Israel Adesanya by Decison
