This week, the UFC heads to the newly renamed Meta Apex for the first time this year. Coming off UFC 325, where I correctly picked 8 of 10 UFC fights but went 0-3 on Road to UFC, it was still a great overall card, highlighted by Ruffy scoring a TKO over Fiziev. This week’s Apex card is obviously a step down from the past couple of events, but at least we still get fights. Below, I’ll break down the entire card— starting with quick looks at the prelims and building toward a full breakdown of the main event. As always, if you’re just here for the picks, feel free to scroll ahead— I don’t want to waste your time. Final picks will be clearly marked in bold after each breakdown.
Klaudia Sygula vs Priscila Cachoeria
Opening up the card, we have some unranked WMMA action (so exciting). I think Klaudia Sygula should win this fight fairly easily. She does her best work in the clinch and is able to mix in her grappling, which happens to be Priscila Cachoeira’s biggest weakness. As long as Sygula can avoid Cachoeira’s power on the feet and get the fight to the ground, she should be able to secure a straightforward win.
Final Pick: Klaudia Sygula by Decision
Muin Gafurov vs Jakub Wiklacz
This is definitely one of the tougher fights to predict on the card. Muin Gafurov turned heads last year with his impressive win over Rinya Nakamura, a result that surprised a lot of people. Gafurov is a well-rounded fighter who is especially technical on the feet, and his striking should be his biggest advantage in this matchup against a high-level jiu-jitsu black belt. While grappling will likely be a focus for Wiklacz, Gafurov has shown solid wrestling and should be capable of handling those exchanges.
That said, Wiklacz does bring a real submission threat, which is a concern since Gafurov has been caught in a choke before against Said Nurmagomedov. However, Nurmagomedov possesses one of the best guillotines in the UFC, making that situation somewhat unique. Overall, I think Gafurov will be good enough defensively to keep this fight standing for extended stretches, where he should be able to do the cleaner and more effective work.
Final Pick: Muin Gafurov by Decision
Wang Cong vs Eduardo Moura
This one should be a fairly straightforward breakdown. Wang Cong is clearly the superior striker in this matchup and carries significantly more power. Eduarda Moura will likely be forced into shooting repeated, desperate takedowns in an effort to get the fight to the ground, but it’s hard to see her competing with Cong’s level of striking. If Cong is able to defend the takedowns, she should be in control throughout the fight and may even be able to find a finish.
Final Pick: Wang Cong by KO/TKO
Javid Basharat vs Gianni Vazquez
Said Nurmagomedov is out of his fight with Javid Basharat, and Gianni Vazquez stepped in on extremely short notice right before I was about to post my predictions, so here’s my take. I’m not particularly high on Basharat, but this is still a matchup he should be able to win. Vazquez is a flyweight moving up a weight class on just two days’ notice, and while credit goes to him for stepping in, Basharat is the one who has been preparing for this date. I don’t expect Basharat to run through Vazquez, but I do think he’ll be able to mix things up effectively and won’t have to worry too much about significant power coming back at him.
Final Pick: Javid Basharat by Decision
Bruna Brasil vs Ketlen Souza
We have the third Fighting Nerd this year looking to pick up a win in Bruna Brasil. Brasil is a solid fighter with good footwork and sharp kicking attacks, but her biggest drawback is a lack of consistent output. At the UFC level in WMMA—where many fights tend to go to decision—that can be a concern. Ketlen Sousa should have the advantage in volume, but Brasil has a path to landing the more meaningful and damaging shots over the course of fifteen minutes. Sousa also tends to be heavy on her lead leg, which makes Brasil’s low kicks a key weapon in this matchup. In the end, I’m willing to trust the Fighting Nerds here.
Final Pick: Bruna Brasil by Decision
Nikolay Veretennikov vs Niko Price
This fight was a late and somewhat random addition to the card, seemingly announced out of nowhere. Nikolay Veretennikov is an aggressive, fast striker who likes to throw big, powerful shots, but he’s also very vulnerable to being taken down. He hasn’t looked particularly impressive in his previous UFC appearances, which makes it hard to trust him to win a fight. That said, his opponent, Niko Price, may be even harder to rely on at this stage of his career, as he is well past his prime. Price does have a grappling game that could come into play against Veretennikov, but it’s difficult to feel confident that he’ll be able to consistently implement it. I don’t love this fight from a betting or prediction standpoint, but if Veretennikov goes out there and commits to his striking, I think he has a path to finding a win.
Final Pick: Nikolay Veretennikov by Decision
Alex Morono vs Daniil Donchenko
I think this is the easiest fight to predict on the card, so I’ll keep it brief. Alex Morono has been around for a long time and will likely look to drag Danil Donchenko into deep waters. However, I don’t expect Donchenko to hold anything back early. He throws massive punches and kicks with his very impressive Muay Thai skill set. His round-one aggression in particular makes it hard to see Morono surviving for long if he gets caught early.
Final Pick: Daniil Donchenko by KO/TKO
Dustin Jacoby vs Julius Walker
Moving into the light heavyweight division, Dustin Jacoby takes on Julius Walker. Jacoby is a seasoned UFC veteran with a strong kickboxing base and sneaky power in his hands. I’ll never forget him cashing my bet with that brutal knockout over Vitor Petrino in Tampa. Walker has shown some promise, looking decent in his debut despite the loss and following it up with an okay performance against Rafael Cerqueira, though he appeared to struggle with cardio in that fight. This feels like a significant step up in competition for Walker, and unless he’s able to find Jacoby’s chin early, it’s hard to see him able to get the victory. Given Jacoby’s experience and ability to manage fights, I have to side with the veteran to wear Walker down and find the TKO.
Final Pick: Dustin Jacoby by KO/TKO
Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat
Next up, we get an interesting matchup between Jean Matsumoto and Farid Basharat. Matsumoto is a very talented young fighter and arguably should still be undefeated, as I thought he did enough to beat Rob Font in his only career loss. He’s a durable striker with a fun Muay Thai–based style and has also shown effectiveness with his grappling. That said, he has a tendency to jump guillotines whenever the opportunity presents itself, which could be a risky habit in this matchup. We have also seen him fade in the later rounds of some of his fights.
On the other side, Farid Basharat is a well-rounded fighter who does a great job mixing things up. While he throws solid volume on the feet, his wrestling is where he really separates himself. Basharat has strong top control, and if he’s able to get Matsumoto on his back, it could turn into a long night for the Brazilian. Overall, I see Basharat as the more complete prospect here, and I expect him to extend his undefeated record in this fight.
Final Pick: Farid Basharat by Decision
Michael Oleksiejczuk vs Marc-Andre Barriault
We should be in for a fun matchup here as two marauders step into the cage. Michael Oleksiejcuk looks to be in the best form of his career; while his overall record may not be great, he has appeared extremely dangerous in his last two performances. He’ll be taking on Marc-Andre Barriault, who lacks strong defensive habits but loves to pressure forward and throw big shots. This feels like a fight where both guys are willing to stand in the pocket and trade till someone goes down. With that in mind, I have to side the more durable fighter in Oleksiejcuk, as we’ve seen Barriault get brutally slept before and his hittable style could end up being a major liability.
Final Pick: Michael Oleksiejcuk by KO/TKO
Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev
Jailton Almeida returns to the Octagon following his controversial loss to Alexander Volkov last year. Despite holding top control for much of the fight, Almeida failed to inflict meaningful damage, which ultimately swayed the judges in Volkov’s favor, since he was able to land the more impactful strikes. Almeida is a one-dimensional fighter, relying heavily on his high-level jiu-jitsu while offering limited offense elsewhere. Because of that, if he’s unable to get his opponent to the ground, he could be in serious trouble.
He’ll be facing Rizvan Kuniev, who was impressive in an extremely competitive bout against Curtis Blaydes, one of the division’s top heavyweights. Kuniev showed solid takedown defense in that fight and appears to hold a significant advantage on the feet. If he’s able to keep this matchup standing, I think Kuniev has a strong path to victory.
Final Pick: Rizvan Kuniev by KO/TKO
Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi
This co-main event gives us some ranked flyweight action. To be honest, it is easy to forget about Amir Albazi at this point, as he hasn’t fought since November of 2024, when he was dominated by Brandon Moreno for five rounds. Albazi has also reportedly undergone multiple surgeries in recent years, which is far from ideal heading into a matchup at this level. While he’s capable of mixing things up and is a solid MMA fighter, there are a lot of question marks working against him coming into this fight.
His opponent, Kyoji Horiguchi enters this bout after a statement win over Tagir Ulanbekov in his return to the UFC. Horiguchi has been around the sport for a long time and brings an extensive résumé against high level competition. His last performance showed that he still has what it takes to make a serious run in the division. He appears to be the more well-rounded fighter here and offers greater finishing potential, and it’s hard to see Albazi consistently out striking or out grappling him. Taking everything into account, I have to side Kyoji Horiguchi in this matchup.
Final Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi by Decision
Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira
Getting into the main event of the evening, we have a very interesting bantamweight fight. Mario Bautista brings a lot to like in a matchup that can turn chaotic quickly. He has excellent cardio, which should be a major factor in a fight scheduled for five rounds. He consistently pushes a high pace without burning himself out. Bautista is the cleaner and more technical striker in this matchup and has faced a significantly higher level of competition throughout his career. Even in his loss to Umar Nurmagomedov, Bautista looked extremely impressive— showing strong scrambling ability on the ground and even rocking Umar with a big knee. Being able to compete in those exchanges speaks volumes about his overall skill level and composure.
Vinicius Oliveira, on the other hand, brings pure chaos. He is always involved in entertaining fights, largely due to his explosiveness and size for the weight class. Oliveira walks forward with his hand down, throwing everything with bad intentions. While he can look sloppy on the feet, his unorthodox style is exactly what makes him so dangerous. His relentless aggression allows him to break his opponents. That said, this is a clear step up in competition for him, and the biggest question is whether his style can break someone as proven as Bautista. There’s also reason to believe Oliveira may slow down if forced to fight at a sustained pace.
I will hesitantly side with Mario Bautista here. I think he has the more complete MMA skill set and, more importantly, the cardio to withstand Oliveira’s early pressure. Bautista’s movement should make it difficult to consistently track him down and land clean shots, I also like Bautista’s ability to mix in takedowns and get control time against the cage. While Oliveira is extremely dangerous and capable of changing the fight in an instant, I trust Bautista to stay defensively sound, survive the chaos, and gradually take over as Oliveira begins to slow down.
Final Pick: Mario Bautista by Decision
