We’re finally back with another numbered event as UFC 326 features a fan-favorite showdown between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira for the BMF title. It’s a strong headliner that should be exciting, and while the rest of the card may not be the best on paper, there are still several matchups with the chance to deliver some fun scraps. Last week at UFC Mexico City, I went 9–4 on my picks — solid, but not quite where I want to be, especially considering the odds in a few of those bouts. Lone’er Kavanagh really surprised me with how well he managed his pace and put together a good performance against Brandon Moreno in his home country, while Chito Vera once again fell short in a fight he had every opportunity to win. I’m excited for another big week of action and will be breaking down the entire UFC 326 card from top to bottom, with my official picks clearly marked in bold after each analysis — let’s aim for a clean sweep this time.
Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato
We’re kicking off the card with Rodolfo Bellato, and with him, you truly never know what you’re going to get. He faces UFC newcomer Luke Fernandez, who doesn’t have a ton of professional experience but definitely passes the eye test. Fernandez is aggressive, throws fast hands for the division, and does a great job following his combinations with ground-and-pound. Coming from a wrestling background, he should be able to hold his own in the grappling exchanges, which makes it hard to see Bellato having a clear advantage anywhere.
Bellato is always entertaining. He pressures forward, carries solid power, and thrives in chaotic exchanges, but he’s also been dropped and hurt multiple times in recent fights. In fact, his last four matchups have resulted in a win, a draw, a no contest, and a loss — a stretch that perfectly captures how unpredictable his fights can be. While he does hold the experience edge, I ultimately favor the sharper and more explosive Fernandez to capitalize on Bellato’s defensive lapses and secure a knockout to open the night.
Final Pick: Luke Fernandez by KO/TKO
JeongYeong Lee vs Gaston Bolaños
JeongYeong Lee steps in on relatively short notice to take on Gaston Bolaños. Once viewed as a rising prospect out of Korea, Lee now looks to rebound from back-to-back losses, and this feels like a strong stylistic opportunity for him if he approaches it correctly. Bolaños has shown clear vulnerabilities in his grappling, which Lee could exploit with a disciplined game plan. The key concern, however, is Lee’s tendency to get drawn into brawls, as trading shots with Bolaños would play directly into his strengths on the feet. If Lee can avoid prolonged exchanges and instead blend his striking with timely takedowns, he has a clear path to getting back in the win column.
Final Pick: JeongYeong Lee by Decision
Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay
The next matchup takes place in the light heavyweight division, where Rafael Tobias will be making his UFC debut against Diyar Nurgozhay. Tobias is coming off a win on DWCS—which feels repetitive saying at this point—but he delivered a very complete performance there. He showcased sharp counter striking on the feet and capped it off with a first-round submission. Tobias looks like a very intriguing prospect, especially because of how dangerous he is on the ground. He does a great job using ground-and-pound to open up submission opportunities, and overall he appears to have a well-rounded skill set with solid upside.
Nurgozhay, on the other hand, has had a disappointing run in the UFC so far, losing both of his fights by submission. That raises serious concerns about his submission defense heading into this matchup. Defensively on the feet he hasn’t looked particularly sharp either, though he can still be dangerous offensively. Nurgozhay is a powerful striker and throws a very good high kick that could be a threat if Tobias isn’t careful. Still, there are a lot of clear weaknesses on Nurgozhay’s side that Tobias could exploit. I think Tobias will be able to get his counter striking going on the feet, eventually secure a takedown, and ultimately find a submission finish.
Final Pick: Rafael Tobias by Submission
Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar
Moving into the flyweight division, we have a pretty fun matchup as Sumudaerji takes on Jesus Aguilar. Sumudaerji is a very high-level technical striker who is extremely long for this weight class, and he’ll have a massive reach advantage here. His movement and footwork are excellent, allowing him to stay elusive and manage distance very well on the feet. However, when Sumudaerji has lost in the past, it has typically been against opponents who bring strong grappling and submission threats—something Aguilar could definitely present.
Aguilar has been impressive in my eyes and has cashed as an underdog for me a few times. He is a very small flyweight, which will be even more noticeable against a taller and longer fighter like Sumudaerji, and he may struggle with the range and movement early on. That said, Aguilar does a good job closing the distance to get into boxing range, and his leg kicks could help slow Sumudaerji’s footwork. I also expect Aguilar to lean heavily on his wrestling here. He has a very dangerous guillotine choke that opponents are always wary of, and I think he could threaten with it in this matchup. Overall, I like what I’ve seen from Aguilar and believe he can land some effective leg kicks, secure a few takedowns, and potentially find a submission against a fighter who has been put in bad grappling positions before.
Final Pick: Jesus Aguilar by Submission
Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
This next matchup is actually pretty intriguing. Cody Durden is an established UFC veteran who has consistently faced high-level competition in the flyweight division, but he’s been getting hurt and finished in several of those recent outings. His durability appears to be declining, which is concerning against a dangerous opponent. That said, this is a step down from the bigger names he’s been fighting, and Durden likely holds the overall skill advantage. He’s the more technical striker, mixes in his wrestling effectively, and has shown the ability to threaten with submissions as well.
On the other side, Nyamjaral Tumendemberel is extremely dangerous, even if his striking isn’t the cleanest technically. He fights with aggression and truly wants to hurt his opponents. He also has the ability to find chokes when the fight hits the mat. This is undeniably a major step up in competition for him, as Durden is the best opponent he’s faced to date. However, given Durden’s recent durability issues and the way he’s been finished, it’s hard to fully trust him. I could see Durden winning large portions of the fight with his experience and technique, but ultimately getting caught by Tumendemberel’s aggression and power.
Final Pick: Nyamjargal Tumendemberel by KO/TKO
Ricky Turcios vs Alberto Montes
Ricky Turcios is moving up to featherweight to take on Alberto Montes. I don’t love the move up in weight, even though part of me wants to pick Turcios because he’s often a bit overhated. Turcios has a very chaotic style with constant stance switches and high output, which can make his fights messy and difficult to deal with. However, he isn’t the most efficient striker and doesn’t carry much power. He does have solid grappling and scrambling ability, but moving up a weight class could affect how effective that scrambling is against bigger, stronger opponents.
Montes, on the other hand, has shown some very dangerous submission skills, particularly with his anaconda choke. His striking hasn’t been especially impressive, but I do think he has the edge in grappling and overall physicality in this matchup. Turcios will likely make this a scrappy and high-paced fight, but I’m not sure he has the efficiency or power on the feet to really punish Montes. I could see Montes eventually using his grappling to control the fight and start working toward a submission. As much as I’d like to pick Turcios here, I just don’t feel great about him moving up to featherweight for this matchup.
Final Pick: Alberto Montes by Decision
Donte Johnson vs Cody Brundage
This feels like the clearest pick on a card full of competitive matchups. Donte Johnson has looked impressive so far, earning his contract with a heavyweight knockout on the Contender Series before dropping to middleweight and submitting Sedriques Dumas. He’s a powerful, explosive athlete with finishing upside, which makes him a dangerous prospect in this division. Cody Brundage deserves credit for stepping in on short notice, especially after being knocked out by Cam Rowston just a month ago, but this is a tough turnaround. While Brundage can have moments against up-and-coming fighters, he hasn’t been able to consistently turn those into wins and often struggles when facing adversity. Given the short notice and finishing upside from Johnson, it’s hard to side with Brundage in this spot.
Final Pick: Donte Johnson by KO/TKO
Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long
I will always be excited for a Cody Garbrandt fight, no matter where he is in his career. Even if he’s past his prime and a bit removed from his championship run, Garbrandt is still an incredibly quick boxer with knockout power. At 34 years old, I still think he holds a clear speed advantage in this matchup, and he’s also faced far better competition throughout his career. His recent losses have come against high-level fighters like Deiveson Figueiredo and Raoni Barcelos, which is a big difference compared to the level his opponent has been facing.
Garbrandt’s opponent, Xiao Long, is a young and durable fighter who pushes a steady pace and constantly moves forward. He’s capable of mixing in takedowns and does have solid experience for his age, but much of it hasn’t come against great competition. Xiao certainly has the power to hurt Garbrandt, especially considering the concerns about Cody’s chin at this stage of his career, but this is a major step up in competition. I think Garbrandt’s speed and overall striking ability will be the difference here. He’s also shown the ability to defend wrestling well and could even land a few takedowns of his own. Xiao’s durability might make it difficult for Garbrandt to find the finish, but I still think Cody has what it takes to win this fight.
Final Pick: Cody Garbrandt by Decision
Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira
This is a big rematch between ranked middleweights, as Brunno Ferreira and Gregory Rodrigues meet again after their first explosive fight a few years ago. Ferreira scored a huge knockout the first time they faced off, and Rodrigues will definitely be looking to avenge that loss with a smarter approach. If Rodrigues wants a different result this time, he’ll need to be much more cautious when pressuring forward. He doesn’t have the best head movement, and his chin has looked questionable in a few performances, which makes Ferreira’s power especially dangerous. That said, Rodrigues has made noticeable improvements since their first fight, and I expect him to come in with a more disciplined game plan. He should also have a reach advantage, which could help him control distance more effectively.
On the other side, Ferreira brings massive power and explosive offense. He may be a bit short for the division, but he makes up for it with aggression, knockout ability, and a submission threat if the fight hits the ground. Ferreira will certainly be hunting for another finish here, but I think Rodrigues adjusts well in the rematch. I expect him to fight with more patience, mix in his grappling, and take away some of Ferreira’s explosiveness. If Rodrigues can slow the pace and drag the fight into the later rounds, he could wear Ferreira down and execute a much smarter path to victory this time around.
Final Pick: Gregory Rodrigues by Decision
Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson
This is a tough fight to predict, but it should be an absolute war either way. We have two longtime UFC veterans facing off as 37-year-old Drew Dober takes on 39-year-old Michael Johnson. Dober has taken a lot of damage throughout his career, largely due to his exciting, all-action style. He loves to get into the pocket and trade punches, and he carries the kind of power that can knock anyone out. However, we’ve also started to see his durability decline a bit in recent fights, as he’s been getting knocked out himself after years of absorbing heavy shots.
Johnson, on the other hand, still has extremely quick hands and should hold a clear speed advantage in this matchup. He’s looked good in his recent performances, though I do want to pump the brakes slightly. His win over Daniel Zellhuber looked impressive at the time, but after Zellhuber’s loss last week, it may not age quite as well as it once seemed. That makes Johnson a bit difficult to fully trust given the level of competition he’s faced lately. In this matchup I’m siding with the fighter who has the stronger recent wins and has shown the ability to battle back when things get tough. Someone is likely getting knocked out in this fight—and I think it ends up being Johnson.
Final Pick: Drew Dober by KO/TKO
Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr.
This matchup was originally scheduled for Noche UFC last year, but Raul Rosas Jr. unfortunately had to pull out. I’m glad the UFC was able to rebook it because it is actually an interesting fight. Rob Font has settled into the role of a bantamweight gatekeeper over the past few years, picking up solid wins over fighters like Jean Matsumoto and Kyler Phillips. With his experience, sharp hands, and strong fight IQ, he’s consistently a tough out. I believe Font will have the clear striking advantage in this matchup, but the key question is his takedown defense. He has struggled at times to stop takedowns and work his way back to his feet, which is a major concern against a grappler like Rosas Jr.
Rosas Jr., the youngest fighter ever signed by the UFC, continues to show improvement each time out. This feels like a matchup the promotion likes for him — an opportunity to break into the rankings with a win over an established veteran. His clearest path to victory is through his grappling, where he can control positions and hunt for submissions. However, his cardio has been a concern in the past, and that cannot happen against someone as experienced as Font. While this is a clear step up in competition, I believe Rosas Jr.’s grappling and top control gives him the more defined path to victory here — Chiwiwis!!
Final Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. by Decision
Caio Borralho vs Reinier De Ridder
I’ve gone back and forth on this fight all week and have changed my prediction a few times, but here’s where I’ve landed. Both fighters are coming off losses, which makes this a very important matchup for each of them. Caio Borralho is coming off a disappointing defeat to Nassourdine Imavov, where he was largely outstruck over five rounds. That said, Imavov has proven himself to be one of the top middleweights in the division, so it’s not the worst loss to have. In this matchup against Reinier de Ridder, Borralho should clearly have the striking advantage. He’s a technical striker with some power, but he typically prefers to stay on the outside and control the pace rather than chase finishes. Borralho is most comfortable in a clean striking battle where he can dictate the tempo, though he may not get that kind of fight against someone like de Ridder.
De Ridder has a very unique style. He’s extremely large for the weight class and possesses elite grappling and submission skills. He’s also very dangerous in the clinch, where he uses his size well and lands strong knees to the body while trying to grind opponents down. However, cardio has been a concern for him. In his last fight against Brendan Allen, he appeared to fade badly and ultimately quit on the stool between rounds. That obviously isn’t a great look, but there were reports of underlying health issues that may have contributed to it. If that’s truly the case and those issues have been resolved, there’s a good chance we see a better version of de Ridder here. His path to victory is fairly clear—close the distance, control Borralho in the clinch, and work to bring the fight to the ground where his grappling can take over.
If de Ridder is able to consistently get his hands on Borralho and drag the fight to the mat, it could create real problems. That said, I think Borralho has solid enough jiu-jitsu to stay safe and avoid submissions if he does end up on the ground. When the fight takes place on the feet, I believe Borralho’s speed will be a major factor. His jab, movement, and kicks should allow him to manage distance and pick de Ridder apart from range. I also think Borralho’s takedown defense will hold up well enough to keep large portions of the fight standing. On top of that, Borralho has proven he can maintain strong cardio over five rounds without the kind of lapses we’ve seen from de Ridder in the past. I do think de Ridder has a legitimate path to victory and there may be some value on him as an underdog, but ultimately I trust Borralho’s speed, timing, and fight IQ to lead him to a well-executed game plan and a decision win.
Final Pick: Caio Borralho by Decision
Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira
What a main event. Two of the most beloved fighters in UFC history meet for the BMF belt in a matchup that feels like the purest form of striker vs. grappler at the highest level. Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira did fight over a decade ago at featherweight, but that bout ended early due to Oliveira suffering a shoulder injury, so there’s very little to take from it. Both men have evolved tremendously since then, making this a fascinating stylistic clash between two future Hall of Famers at lightweight.
Holloway’s game is built on pace, precision, and overwhelming volume. Even at lightweight, his hand speed stands out, and his power has looked sharper since moving up from featherweight. He’s incorporated more kicks to help manage distance, and his footwork allows him to flow in and out while piling up damage. Historically, he’s shown excellent takedown defense and has been extremely difficult to control on the ground. However, we haven’t truly seen him tested against an offensive grappler with the wrestling and submission instincts of Oliveira. Add in recent concerns about his durability, after being knocked out by Ilia Topuria and badly hurt by Dustin Poirier. There are more questions surrounding him than ever before, even though his only recent losses have come against elite names like Topuria and Alexander Volkanovski.
Oliveira, meanwhile, has grown immensely as a striker since their first meeting. He’s proven his stand-up against high-level lightweights like Poirier and Justin Gaethje, showcasing sharp Muay Thai, brutal knees and elbows in close, teeps to manage range, and increasingly confident boxing. That said, his aggression can make him hittable, and his chin remains a concern — especially after his knockout loss to Topuria as well. He will likely be the slower fighter on the feet, but what separates Oliveira is his grappling. His jiu-jitsu is the most dangerous the UFC has ever seen, and he blends his striking seamlessly into takedown entries and submission opportunities. As he showed against Mateusz Gamrot, he can even outclass other high-level grapplers on the ground, and his physicality could pose real problems for Holloway.
For Oliveira to win, he needs to pressure Holloway, make the fight chaotic in close quarters, and look to hurt him before dragging the fight to the mat. He’s not typically a minute-winning striker, so outpointing one of the highest-volume fighters in MMA history over five rounds seems unlikely. His clearest path is to stun Holloway, jump on a submission, and capitalize on any defensive lapses. On the other side, Holloway’s path is built around speed, cardio, and output — stretching the fight out, stuffing early takedowns, and overwhelming Oliveira with combinations as the rounds accumulate.
Ultimately, I think this fight comes down to Oliveira’s grappling advantage. Holloway likely holds the edge in striking volume and speed, but that gap isn’t as wide as the massive difference in submission threat. Oliveira is the best jiu-jitsu specialist the UFC has seen, and once he gets the fight to the ground, it becomes his world entirely. I believe he has the tools to stay competitive on the feet long enough to close distance, use his knees and elbows in tight, and eventually secure control. Once it hits the mat, I don’t see it being competitive — Oliveira by submission feels like the most realistic outcome in my eyes.
Final Pick: Charles Oliveira by Submission
