The UFC returns to the Apex this weekend with another Fight Night card, featuring a solid lineup headlined by Josh Emmett taking on Kevin Vallejos in what should be an entertaining main event. Coming off UFC 326 last week, I finished 9–3 on my predictions, which always feels great. The title fight between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira didn’t quite live up to the “BMF” hype many fans were expecting, but I was glad to call that one correctly. This week’s card has several interesting matchups that could lead to some exciting performances and hopefully a few more finishes, so let’s get right into the full card breakdown, with all of my official picks clearly marked in bold after each analysis.
Piera Rodriguez vs Sam Hughes
The first fight of the night is a rematch between unranked strawweights Piera Rodriguez and Sam Hughes, a matchup I’m sure everyone was eagerly asking for after how electric the first fight was (joking, of course). Rodriguez won their first meeting in a fairly close contest, largely by landing a few takedowns, though she struggled to keep Hughes on the ground for extended periods, which is usually a key part of her game plan. Since then, I think Hughes has shown a lot of improvement, particularly with her ability to scramble and consistently work her way back to her feet rather than accepting bottom position. If this fight follows a similar pattern, I expect Hughes to be the more active fighter overall and produce the cleaner work on the feet, which could give the judges more to score in her favor this time around.
Final Pick: Sam Hughes by Decision
Luan Lacerda vs Hecher Sosa
This is a pretty interesting matchup as Luan Lacerda takes on Hecher Sosa. Lacerda is very dangerous on the ground and has shown that most of his success comes through submissions. His performance against Saimon Oliveira made it clear that opponents really don’t want to engage with him in grappling exchanges. However, this is MMA, and unlike some matchups where the jiu-jitsu specialist has the clear gameplan, this one feels more complicated. Lacerda’s grappling is impressive, but outside of that he hasn’t shown as much success.
Sosa, on the other hand, looks like the more complete fighter overall and should have a significant advantage on the feet. He throws dangerous leg kicks, works the body well, and generally looks more comfortable striking at range. If Sosa can keep the fight standing and avoid extended grappling exchanges, his striking should give him a clear edge in this matchup. As long as he can defend the takedowns and dictate where the fight takes place, I think Sosa has a great chance to put together an impressive performance in his UFC debut.
Final Pick: Hecher Sosa by KO/TKO
Bia Mesquita vs Montserrat Rendon
This fight seems pretty straightforward, although it’s always a little risky to fully trust large favorites in WMMA. Bia Mesquita should have a very easy path to victory with her high-level grappling against Montse Rendon. Rendon may have the advantage on the feet, but it’s hard to see this fight staying standing for long. Mesquita has already shown that her elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu translates well to MMA, and once the fight hits the ground she should be in complete control. Rendon hasn’t shown the kind of grappling threat that would make this a particularly dangerous matchup, so I expect Mesquita to secure a takedown fairly early and eventually work her way to a submission finish.
Final Pick: Bia Mesquita by Submission
Brad Tavares vs Eryk Anders
This should be a competitive fight between two veterans who are likely at the end of their careers. Both Brad Tavares and Eryk Anders have been around the UFC for a long time, so it’s actually nice to see them matched up with each other rather than being thrown in against a young, dangerous prospect. Tavares is probably the more technical striker in this matchup. He does a good job mixing his strikes together and has a solid kicking game that helps him control distance. One of his biggest strengths throughout his career has also been his takedown defense, which has allowed him to keep fights where he’s most comfortable. That said, his durability does seem to be fading a bit, and that was noticeable in his most recent fight.
Anders, on the other hand, is the type of fighter who wants to close the distance, get physical, and make fights gritty. In recent performances he has leaned more heavily on his wrestling and clinch work to control opponents. Even though he was knocked out in his last fight, I still think he may be the more durable fighter at this stage. Overall, though, I expect Tavares to have the edge in the striking exchanges. If his takedown defense holds up the way it has for most of his career, he should be able to keep the fight standing and use his kicks and cleaner fundamentals to win the majority of the exchanges.
Final Pick: Brad Tavares by Decision
Bolaji Oki vs Manoel Sousa
This is a much closer fight than many people seem to think, and stylistically it should be a pretty entertaining matchup on the feet. Bolaji Oki is often very dangerous early in fights and tends to start quickly with sharp, technical striking. We saw that in his matchups with Chris Duncan and Mason Jones, where he looked strong early before eventually getting finished in both fights. Oki has shown solid takedown defense and generally good technique in his striking, but the concern has been his ability to maintain that success and close fights out.
On the other side, Manoel Sousa is best known for knocking out Mauricio Ruffy, which brought him a bit of hype coming into the UFC. Sousa has shown toughness and durability in past performances, but his aggressive style can also make him a little reckless at times. While that aggression makes him dangerous offensively, his defensive lapses are concerning. Because of that, I think Oki may be able to find an opening during one of those exchanges and land a big shot on the feet. I’m not extremely confident in the pick, but I do lean toward Oki finding a knockout in this matchup.
Final Pick: Bolaji Oki by KO/TKO
Elijah Smith vs SuYoung You
Next up we have Elijah Smith taking on You. Yes, that’s right—Smith is fighting YOU. Hopefully you’ve been training. Jokes aside, Smith returns after his insane Rampage-style slam knockout against Toshiomi Kazama, a highlight that most fans have probably seen by now, but if you haven’t it’s definitely worth going back and watching. Smith is still extremely young at just 23 years old, and he has looked very impressive so far in his career. He has strong wrestling and has shown he can land takedowns effectively, but I actually think his biggest advantage in this fight might come on the feet, where he appears to have the edge in both power and boxing.
SuYoung You comes from the Road to UFC tournament and is coming off a win over Xiao Long, which is respectable. He’s a fairly well-rounded fighter with a solid submission game, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him try to take this fight to the ground. That said, he hasn’t necessarily faced the strongest level of competition yet. I expect Smith to be able to defend most of the takedown attempts and keep the fight standing for the majority of the bout. If that happens, his power and striking should allow him to control the fight. Smith looks like a fighter with a lot of potential, and I think he adds another win to his record here.
Final Pick: Elijah Smith by Decision
Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund
This is an extremely exciting heavyweight matchup as Steven Asplund returns after a memorable UFC debut to take on Vitor Petrino. Now, Petrino may be the more well-rounded MMA fighter. He has a solid grappling game that could be very important in this matchup, especially considering Asplund’s only professional loss came by submission to Denzel Freeman. That suggests the grappling could be a potential weakness if Petrino is able to get the fight to the ground. Petrino has also shown he can knock opponents out on the feet, but if he can’t consistently land takedowns, he may struggle with the pace that Asplund brings.
Asplund is a very unique heavyweight because of the pace and volume he throws. In his debut, he showed an incredible gas tank for someone his size, constantly pushing forward and throwing combinations that most heavyweights simply can’t maintain. On top of that, he fights with a ton of heart and urgency, and it often feels like he simply wants it more than his opponents when things get tough. That relentless pressure makes him a very difficult fighter to deal with over the course of a fight. Petrino, on the other hand, has occasionally made questionable decisions inside the octagon, which can make it difficult to fully trust him to stick to the right game plan. If Asplund can defend the takedowns and keep this fight standing, I think his pace, pressure, and determination could push Petrino into a chaotic fight and help him grind out a win.
Final Pick: Steven Asplund by KO/TKO
Chris Curtis vs Myktybek Orolbai
Why this fight isn’t on the main card is beyond me, because it’s a fantastic matchup that should be a lot of fun. Chris Curtis has been around the sport for a long time and remains a very sharp, technical boxer who is difficult for anyone to deal with on the feet. Being from Cincinnati—where I’m from as well—I always feel a bit inclined to support him. Curtis fights with excellent defensive awareness and typically makes opponents work for every exchange. I also like his takedown defense historically, which could be important in a matchup against someone like Myktybek Orolbai. The downside with Curtis is that he’s getting older and can sometimes fight at a lower output, which has cost him on the scorecards in close fights.
Orolbai, on the other hand, is an absolute animal. Despite the memes that often circulate about him, he’s a legitimately tough and exciting prospect to watch. He’s the type of fighter who constantly moves forward no matter what he gets hit with. His fight against Mateusz Rebecki showed exactly that—Orolbai simply doesn’t give up and fights with relentless pressure. He has big power on the feet and once he gets opponents to the ground he also has a solid submission game. Overall, I think Orolbai is a very strong prospect and welterweight looks like a good weight class for him. While Curtis will likely have moments with his boxing, I think Orolbai’s pressure, output, and ability to win exchanges in the clinch and mix in takedowns will ultimately allow him to edge out the fight.
Final Pick: Myktybek Orolbai by Decision
Charles Johnson vs Bruno Silva
The prospect killer Charles Johnson is back, although this time he isn’t facing a rising prospect. I actually trusted Johnson to get the job done against Alex Perez in his last fight, but that one didn’t go his way. Johnson’s career has honestly been hard to read because his performances can vary so much from fight to fight. Still, credit to him for taking a quick turnaround here. Stylistically, Johnson can be a difficult matchup on the feet. He’s usually the longer fighter, has very fast hands, and carries excellent cardio. One of his biggest strengths is his ability to take over fights in the later rounds as opponents begin to slow down—but the key for him is surviving and staying competitive long enough to reach that stage.
On the other side, Bruno Silva brings some of the same qualities that made Perez a tough matchup for Johnson. Silva has real power in his hands, fights with constant pressure, and can mix in grappling when needed. Johnson can sometimes be a bit hittable, which makes this a risky pick, but I’m still leaning toward him in what should be a very competitive fight. I expect Silva to look strong early with his pressure and power, but as the fight progresses Johnson’s pace and cardio could begin to take over. If that happens, I could see Johnson turning the momentum late and possibly finding the knockout that I thought he might land against Perez. I can’t believe I’m trusting him in this spot again, but the tools are there for him to pull it off.
Final Pick: Charles Johnson by KO/TKO
Ion Cutelaba vs Oumar Sy
Oumar Sy was once a fighter with a lot of hype surrounding him in the light heavyweight division. His grappling is a strong weapon, and in a division filled with strikers, that alone can take a fighter pretty far. Sy also has solid striking and will likely have a significant reach advantage here, which could help him keep distance against Ion Cutelaba. Ideally, Sy will want this fight to stay technical and controlled so he can manage range and pick his moments. However, his performance against Alonzo Menifield left a bit of a sour impression. In that fight, Sy looked extremely hesitant and barely let his hands go, which raised some concerns about how he handles pressure.
That hesitation could be a major issue against someone like Cutelaba. Cutelaba thrives in chaotic fights and will almost certainly try to turn this into a messy brawl. He’s aggressive, constantly moving forward, and dangerous at all times. One weapon that could play a big role here is his leg kicks, which he throws with real power and could use to slow Sy’s movement and make it harder for him to maintain range. While Sy may have the grappling edge on paper, Cutelaba is capable enough on the ground that he shouldn’t be easily controlled there. More importantly, he’s the type of fighter who forces opponents into uncomfortable situations. It’s always difficult to fully trust either of these fighters, but one thing you can count on is that Cutelaba will push the pace and bring the fight to Sy. If he can close the distance, land some heavy shots, mix in those damaging leg kicks, and drag Sy into a gritty fight, he could use his aggression and experience to make it a long night for a fighter who has shown he can sometimes overthink in the cage.
Final Pick: Ion Cutelaba by KO/TKO
Marwan Rahiki vs Harry Hardwick
I’m honestly a little surprised to see Harry Hardwick back so soon after getting stopped by leg kicks in his last fight. That kind of TKO is very memorable, and I wasn’t sure we’d see him back in the UFC octagon again. This time he’ll be taking on Marwan Rahiki, who made a huge statement on DWCS with a wild comeback knockout against a very dangerous opponent. Rahiki’s striking is genuinely fun to watch—he’s quick, explosive, and throws with a lot of creativity. Everything he does on the feet looks sharp and fluid.
If you look beyond Hardwick’s last fight, he’s usually a tough and durable competitor. His striking is solid enough, but it’s not particularly dynamic. Where he may have an edge in this matchup is on the ground, as he could look to lean on his grappling if he wants to slow Rahiki down. The problem is getting into that range without taking damage first. Rahiki is very dangerous in open space, and Hardwick can be a bit hittable when he tries to close the distance. If Rahiki can defend the takedowns and keep the fight standing, I think his speed and striking advantage should allow him to make Hardwick pay for those entries and ultimately get the win.
Final Pick: Marwan Rahiki by KO/TKO
Andre Fili vs Jose Miguel Delgado
Another featherweight matchup here, and it’s one I’m really looking forward to because Jose Miguel Delgado is always fun to watch. He’ll be taking on veteran Andre Fili, a very technical mixed martial artist who has shared the octagon with plenty of respectable competition over the years. Fili is well-rounded and does a good job mixing things up with his kicking game and occasional takedowns. If he can survive the early danger, he could present a tough test for Delgado. However, Fili is starting to get a bit older and has been somewhat inconsistent in his recent performances, which makes it hard to fully trust him in a matchup like this.
On the other side, Delgado is an extremely dangerous fighter and is coming off a loss in a fight against Nathaniel Wood that I honestly thought he won. Even in defeat, he looked very impressive and showed the kind of skill set that makes him a real threat in the division. Delgado typically enjoys a reach advantage, but that will not be the case here since Fili is also a taller featherweight. Still, I think Delgado will be the faster and sharper striker in this matchup. From what I’ve seen, he should also be capable of defending the takedowns Fili might attempt. Overall, Delgado just looks so good, and this feels like a slight step down in competition compared to his last fight. If he performs the way he has in recent outings, I think he can really put the pressure on Fili and come away with an early knockout.
Final Pick: Jose Miguel Delgado by KO/TKO
Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robinson
The co-main event is a rebooked matchup that was originally scheduled for last December, as Amanda Lemos takes on Gillian Robertson. I usually try not to factor betting lines too heavily into my predictions, but I was a bit surprised to see Lemos listed as the underdog in this matchup. While Lemos is getting older and may not have the same speed she once did, she still brings a high fight IQ and a well-rounded skill set. In her fight against Tatiana Suarez, she showed she can defend takedowns against one of the best wrestlers in the division, which is an encouraging sign heading into a fight with Robertson.
On the feet, I think Lemos will have a clear advantage. Robertson’s striking has never been her strongest area, and it’s hard to see her having much success in a stand-up battle. I also think Lemos could mix in a few offensive takedowns of her own to neutralize some of Robertson’s grappling threats. Robertson is extremely dangerous when she can get her grappling going, but if she struggles to consistently bring the fight to the ground, it will be difficult for her to win minutes in this matchup. Overall, I trust the experience and striking advantage of Lemos, and even at this stage of her career I think she does enough to come away with the victory.
Final Pick: Amanda Lemos by Decision
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos
Finally, we get to the main event as Josh Emmett takes on rising prospect Kevin Vallejos in a key featherweight matchup. Recently, the fighters who have beaten Emmett have gone on to position themselves near the top of the division, as seen with wins by Lerone Murphy and Youssef Zalal. That trend makes this an important opportunity for Vallejos to prove he belongs among the division’s rising contenders if he can defeat a respected veteran like Emmett.
At 41 years old, Emmett simply isn’t the same fighter he once was. Earlier in his career he mixed in strong wrestling and a more well-rounded attack, but at this stage he relies heavily on his trademark overhand right. There’s no denying the power he still carries—he’s scored some brutal knockouts throughout his career—but if he isn’t landing that one big shot, he often finds himself getting outworked and outvolumed. His combination striking can be limited, and opponents who manage distance well tend to pile up strikes against him. That said, Emmett remains extremely durable and has proven multiple times that he can survive tough fights and go the full five rounds.
Vallejos, meanwhile, looks like one of the more exciting young prospects in the UFC at just 24 years old. His only professional loss came against Jean Silva, who has since proven to be a very dangerous fighter himself. Vallejos has a boxing-heavy style that somewhat resembles Ilia Topuria—though without the same devastating power. What stands out is his sharp technique, combination punching, and speed. I also think his leg kicks could play a huge role here, especially since Emmett tends to sit heavy on his lead leg. Vallejos has shown the ability to mix in takedowns as well, though I don’t necessarily expect that to be a major part of his strategy. The one question mark is that Vallejos has never gone five rounds before, and we have seen him slow slightly late in fights, though he has looked better recently at managing his pace.
Even though Emmett has historically been incredibly durable—surviving heavy shots from someone like Topuria—I think Vallejos has a chance to finish this fight. Emmett’s striking has become fairly one-dimensional, which could make him easier for a technical boxer like Vallejos to read over time. If Vallejos is able to mix up his combinations, attack the body, and repeatedly target Emmett’s lead leg, he should be able to steadily break him down. Over the course of five rounds, that kind of volume and variety could be difficult for Emmett to deal with, and I could see Vallejos eventually putting together a late surge that leads to a TKO finish.
Final Pick: Kevin Vallejos by KO/TKO
