The UFC is finally back after a long six-week break. As the promotion begins a brand-new era on Pararmount+, I can’t wait to see what the year has in store. We’re kicking things off with a fun card from top to bottom at UFC 324. Below, I’ll break down the entire card —starting with quick looks at the prelims and building toward a full breakdown of the main event. If you’re just here for the picks, feel free to scroll ahead — I don’t want to waste your time. Final picks will be clearly marked in bold after each breakdown.
Adam Fugitt vs Ty Miller
In the first fight of 2026, we see Ty Miller making his UFC debut after coming off DWCS. Miller is a young striker who looks very composed in the octagon, doing a great job of staying patient and fighting behind his jab. His opponent, Adam Fugitt, doesn’t have the best UFC record, but when you look at his losses, they aren’t too bad. He has fallen to contenders such as Michael Morales, Mike Malott and most recently Islam Dulatov. I believe Fugitt holds the grappling advantage, and he may look to mix it into his game; however, Miller has shown the ability to work back up from takedowns and keep the fight where he wants it. I expect we will see a competitive matchup, with Ty Miller edging out the win by landing the cleaner shots on the feet.
Final Pick: Ty Miller by Decision
Ricky Turcios vs Cameron Smotherman
Ricky Turcios is back in action after nearly a year away from competition. He has a very awkward style but applies constant pressure, looking to mix things up and throw everything he can at his opponent. Cameron Smotherman is much more one-dimensional, primarily excelling with his boxing. I’ve noticed that he can be fairly low volume at times, as he tends to sit back and look for counters. I think Turcios will be the more active fighter overall, spamming kicks from range and even mixing in some grappling. With his footwork and pace, I believe he can survive Smotherman’s boxing and control the tempo of this fight.
Final Pick: Ricky Turcios by Decision
Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman
I’m very excited to see Josh Hokit back in the octagon so quickly. I can definitely see him making a run in the heavyweight division, as he’s a relentless finisher with nasty ground and pound. He can mix in his wrestling and even has some submissions in his toolbox. Overall, he’s a very athletic heavyweight and dangerous wherever the fight goes. His opponent, Denzel Freeman, looked solid in his UFC debut but appeared a bit hesitant. He could have easily secured a finish if he let his hands go. With that being said, the pick has got to be Josh Hokit who looks to be in store for a big year.
Final Pick: Josh Hokit by KO/TKO
Michael Johnson vs Alexander Hernandez
This is one of the hardest fights on the card to predict. Michael Johnson appears to be having a bit of a resurgence as he gets older, coming off a massive underdog win over Daniel Zellhuber. Johnson’s hands are extremely fast, and he always has finishing potential, as he likes to stay busy and mix things up on the feet. However, Alexander Hernandez has done an amazing job in his recent fights of drawing opponents into his shots and landing devastating counters. He is very patient and comfortable fighting off his back foot, which I believe is a good stylistic matchup against Johnson, who will likely be the aggressor for most of the fight. In addition to his striking, Hernandez could also have success by mixing in his grappling to slow Johnson’s pace. I expect Hernandez to stay composed and pick his shots carefully, without taking unnecessary risks by exchanging in the pocket with a striker like Johnson.
Final Pick: Alexander Hernandez by KO/TKO
Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson
This is another fight that’s tough to predict, as I expect it to be very competitive. Alex Perez looked really good in his fight against Asu Almabayev until he shot a takedown in the third round. Recently he has been matched up against a string of grapplers, but this time he will be matched up against a striker. For a flyweight, Perez carries a lot of power in his hands and also has solid wrestling which he could mix in here. I can see him finding success by turning this into a dirty, close-range fight, staying in Johnsosn’s face to neutralize his reach and footwork. That said, Charles Johnson can aways find a way to win, having done so against high level strikers like Joshua Van and Lone’er Kavanah. Johnson excels at striking from range and using his cardio to outlast opponents. I believe his footwork will allow him to stay elusive while attacking the lead leg of Perez. Over time, I see Johnson wearing Perez down and securing a late round TKO.
Final Pick: Charles Johnson by KO/TKO
Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas
When this fight was first announced, my initial thought was that Nikita Krylov is the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup. However, his chin is a major concern. He’s coming off two brutal knockout losses, and when you look at his opponent, Modestas Bukauskas, it’s clear he poses a real threat on the feet. While Bukauskas’ recent wins haven’t been against the best competition, I still believe he has the striking to put Krylov out. I simply don’t trust Krylov’s durability to hold up over the course of this fight. Additionally, Bukauskas has shown strong takedown defense in the past, which makes me believe he can shut down Krylov’s wrestling early and keep the fight standing.
Final Pick: Modestas Bukauskas by KO/TKO
Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev
I am going to keep this pick super simple. Ateba Gautier should be able to knock Pulyaev out in the first round. While this is a step up in competition, Gautier is so dangerous and mixes his targets effectively, allowing him to find early finishes in nearly every fight. I believe he does it once again at UFC 324.
Final Pick: Ateba Gautier by KO/TKO
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo
Closing out the prelims, we get a high-level matchup between two ranked bantamweights. Umar Nurmagomedov enters this fight after a big bounce back win over Mario Bautista. I think it’s clear that he’s one of the best wrestlers in the division which should translate well in this matchup against Deiveson Figueirdeo. We have seen Figueiredo taken down by several of his past few opponents. While he may hold a slight power advantage on the feet, Nurmagomedov is the more well-rounded fighter overall. I don’t see Figueiredo’s striking posing any problems, especially as he gets up there in age. I expect Umar to win a fairly one-sided decision by controlling the fight on the ground and avoiding the power of Figueredo.
Final Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision
Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva
I believe this fight could be an early contender for Fight of the Year, depending on how long it lasts. Jean Silva is one of the most explosive strikers I’ve seen, with such a wide variety of weapons that it can be hard to predict what he’ll throw next. He brings a wild, chaotic style into the octagon which always makes for entertaining fights, and that chaos can be especially effective against a clean, technical striker like Arnold Allen. However, Silva can be overly aggressive at times, which did cost him in his last fight against Diego Lopes.
If Allen stays patient and doesn’t fold under Silva’s constant pressure, he has the discipline and fundamental boxing to make Silva pay again. He fights extremely well behind his jab, using it to manage distance and set up his combinations. Allen is very composed and often waits for the right openings rather than forcing messy exchanges. That said, I still have to side with Jean Silva. He’s a special athlete, and I expect him to come into this fight having learned a lot from his first UFC loss. Jean’s irregular movement combined with his constant feints will make it difficult for Allen to find his range and land meaningful combos. Regardless of the outcome, this should be a highly entertaining fight with plenty of back-and-forth action.
Final Pick: Jean Silva by Decision
Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas
With the women’s bantamweight title fight being canceled, this will be the first and only WMMA matchup on the card. I believe Natalia Silva takes the win here, as I expect her to be much faster than Rose Namajunas on the feet. This is a matchup I don’t see going to the ground which should favor Silva’s volume and striking advantage.
Final Pick: Natalia Silva by Decision
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis
Coming into this heavyweight showdown, Waldo Cortes-Acosta continues to stay extremely active, taking his sixth fight within a ten-month span. That level of activity is impressive for any fighter—especially a heavyweight—but it raises the question of whether it could backfire as he steps into the cage against the knockout king himself, Derrick Lewis.
When you look at Cortes-Acosta’s fighting style, you see a very quick and athletic heavyweight with solid movement. His footwork will be crucial as he attempts to avoid the devastating power of Lewis’ right hand. It is also worth noting how durable Cortes-Acosta has looked in his past fights, showing a reliable chin against decently powerful opponents. Unfortunately, I don’t believe any of that ultimately matters when you’re facing the fighter with the most knockouts in UFC history. No matter how technical his opponents are, Lewis has a way of finding the finish. I’m not overthinking this one, give me Derrick Lewis to find the late knockout after getting pieced up the whole fight.
Final Pick: Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO
Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong
This fight feels like an absolute must win for Sean O’Malley, as he is coming off two straight losses to Merab Dvalishvili. Sean is one of the most elite kickboxers in the UFC. His ability to switch stances and manage range makes him incredibly difficult to strike against. He uses all of his weapons effectively — from kicks and knees to his hands. The biggest concern for him heading into this fight is his mentality. After losing to the same opponent twice, Sean could enter with a lot of doubts. In my opinion, he’ll need to rediscover the confidence he had during his title run to succeed in this one.
Standing across from the Suga show is an extremely sharp boxer in Song Yadong. Song has fast, explosive hands, but getting into boxing range may be a challenge. While he isn’t known for his wrestling, he could look to mix it in to slow the fight down and neutralize Sean’s range. All things considered, I think we see a vintage Suga Sean masterclass in this matchup. He should be able to use his length and pick Song apart from distance. As long as he comes in with the right mindset, this feels like the bounce back performance he needs.
Final Pick: Sean O’Malley by Decision
Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett
Regardless of whether these two are truly the most deserving contenders for the interim title, this matchup is undeniably exciting. When you put the two side by side, we see a significant step up in striking competition for Paddy Pimblett. However, can Justin Gaethje stay off the ground and avoid being submitted?
Gaethje enters this fight at 37 years old, clearly at the tail end of his career along with a long history of damage absorbed inside the octagon. He’s coming off a win over Rafael Fiziev, a victory that has aged relatively well, though it’s important to note Fiziev was returning from a long layoff and took that fight on short notice. From a pure striking perspective, Gaethje is the much better boxer in this matchup. He handles leg kicks well, doesn’t appear overly bothered by them, and has solid initial takedown defense. That could make it difficult for Paddy to ground him early or slow him down with kicks. However, Gaethje’s durability remains a concern—he has a tendency to get rocked in nearly every fight, which opens the door for various opportunities.
On the other side, Paddy Pimblett appears to be in his prime as he remains undefeated in the UFC. While many of his wins have come against opponents past their prime, that shouldn’t take away from the fact that Pimblett consistently gets the job done. His striking style is unconventional, often fights behind kicks, and his boxing has shown noticeable improvement. In his fight with Michael Chandler, for example, he used his jab effectively to manage distance and control exchanges. That development could play a key role against a wild striker like Gaethje. Additionally, Gaethje tends to duck his head when entering the pocket, which could open up opportunities for Paddy to land well-timed knees during striking exchanges.
It’s also important to clarify that Paddy is not a traditional wrestler. He’s unlikely to shoot repeated double-leg takedowns. Instead, his grappling game thrives in forcing scrambles and taking advantage of unique opportunities, where he can pull guard, create chaos, and hunt for submissions. If this fight spends any extended period of time on the ground, Pimblett’s creative jiu-jitsu gives him a clear advantage.
Overall, this is a matchup I can’t wait to see unfold. I believe Pimblett’s awkward striking and size advantage can give Gaethje problems on the feet before eventually leading to a submission on the ground. We’ve already seen Fiziev get Gaethje down fairly quickly in their second fight and threatened a quick submission attempt. If those openings exist again, a larger and more dangerous grappler like Pimblett should be able to capitalize. Gaethje will undoubtedly land clean shots, but Paddy’s chin has proven reliable time and time again—he’s absorbed big punches in previous matchups and looked completely unfazed. That combination of durability, creativity, and opportunism will be the difference in this fight.
Final Pick: Paddy Pimblett by Submission
