The Mac is back, ladies and gentlemen. It’s hard to believe that Conor McGregor is finally making his long-awaited return to the UFC, and the promotion has put together an absolutely stacked card to go along with it. From top to bottom, this event is loaded with compelling matchups, and there are plenty of fights that could go either way, making this one of the toughest cards to predict in quite some time. A couple of weeks ago in Baku, I had one of my worst prediction performances, finishing just 5-8 overall, but we’re putting that behind us and focusing on this week’s event. As always, I’ll be breaking down every fight on the card from the opening bout to the main event, with my official pick for each matchup clearly marked in bold after every breakdown. One final note: I won’t be posting a full-card breakdown for next week’s event, so let’s make this one count.
Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden
To kick off this stacked night of fights, we have a short-notice flyweight matchup as Alessandro Costa steps in to replace Ode Osbourne. Costa just competed a few weeks ago, so it’s great to see him getting another opportunity so quickly. We recently broke down his skill set, and he continues to impress with his aggressive, exciting style. In many ways, he reminds me of a smaller Diego Lopes with the way he pressures opponents and throws powerful, clean combinations, especially to the body. He has looked better with each UFC appearance, and in addition to his dangerous striking, he also possesses a slick submission game that makes him a threat wherever the fight goes.
Across the cage is Cody Durden, who snapped a lengthy losing streak with a big upset victory in his last outing. Durden is a tough, durable veteran with solid wrestling and scrappy boxing that allows him to stay competitive in most fights. I expect him to come out with a high pace early and look to make this a physical fight, but I think Costa is simply the more dangerous and well-rounded fighter at this stage of his career. If Costa can survive the early pressure, I expect his body work to slow Durden down before he begins taking over the striking exchanges. Ultimately, I think Costa finds a late TKO after breaking Durden down over the course of the fight.
Final Pick: Alessandro Costa by KO/TKO
Ryan Gandra vs Zach Reese
This matchup is much tougher to predict than it looks at first glance. Ryan Gandra burst onto the UFC scene with an impressive knockout victory earlier this year, immediately showcasing the kind of power that makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone. He marches forward with little regard for what is coming back at him and throws looping power shots that can end a fight instantly. The downside to that aggressive style is that it creates plenty of openings. His wide punches leave him vulnerable to counters, takedowns, and extended exchanges, and I also have questions about how his cardio will hold up if he can’t get an early finish.
Standing across from him is Zachary Reese, who seems to make noticeable improvements every time he steps into the Octagon. While his striking defense is still a work in progress, I think his grappling could be the biggest factor in this fight. Reese has more UFC experience, has proven he can battle through adversity, and has shown he can drag opponents into uncomfortable fights. If he survives Gandra’s explosive first round, I think he’ll begin exposing the holes in Gandra’s game by mixing in his wrestling and top control. I expect Reese to weather the early storm before taking over and earning a hard-fought decision.
Final Pick: Zach Reese by Decision
Farid Basharat vs John Garza
This fight took an unexpected turn after Ethyn Ewing was forced out, leaving John Garza to step in on short notice for his UFC debut. Farid Basharat remains one of the more intriguing undefeated prospects in the bantamweight division. While he hasn’t produced many highlight-reel finishes in the UFC, he consistently finds ways to win with a disciplined and well-rounded approach. His grappling is his strongest weapon, but his striking is technically sound enough to set everything else up.
Garza is only 23 years old and appears to have a well-rounded skill set of his own. He has shown knockout power and looks comfortable in grappling exchanges, but the level of competition he’s faced simply doesn’t compare to Basharat’s experience. I think Basharat’s composure, fight IQ, and ability to blend his striking with his wrestling will be the difference. He may not produce the flashiest performance, but I expect him to control the fight from start to finish and earn a clear decision victory.
Final Pick: Farid Basharat by Decision
Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida
This has the potential to be one of the sleeper fights on the entire card. Damian Pinas has impressed me ever since his Contender Series appearance and continued that momentum with a strong UFC debut. Despite his age, he fights with tremendous patience and composure while maintaining a dangerous offensive arsenal. His straight punches are clean and technically sound, and while striking is his biggest strength, I actually believe he’s the more complete mixed martial artist in this matchup.
Across the cage is former GLORY kickboxing standout Cesar Almeida, whose UFC run has been somewhat inconsistent. His striking credentials are unquestioned, and he carries legitimate power, but we’ve also seen defensive lapses that have allowed opponents to find success. I think Pinas has the speed and discipline to capitalize on those openings, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he mixed in a few takedowns to keep Almeida guessing. Overall, I like Pinas to put together another impressive performance and possibly earn a statement finish.
Final Pick: Damian Pinas by KO/TKO
Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong
The lone women’s fight on the card features a fascinating clash of styles. Tracy Cortez is a fundamentally sound boxer with solid footwork and good distance management, but I don’t think striking should be her primary focus here. Her clearest path to victory is using her wrestling early and often, controlling positions, and threatening submissions whenever the opportunity presents itself. My biggest concern is that she isn’t a particularly dangerous striker, which can make it more difficult to create clean takedown entries.
Wang Cong brings some of the best kickboxing in women’s MMA and has continued to improve since suffering the first loss of her career. She’s become more patient and composed, although she can occasionally become overconfident, which is dangerous in MMA where every exchange carries multiple threats. I think this fight ultimately comes down to whether Cortez can consistently secure takedowns. If she can, I believe she’ll spend enough time in dominant positions to control the fight and earn a decision victory.
Final Pick: Tracy Cortez by Decision
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III
This has all the ingredients to be one of the most entertaining fights on the prelims. Luke Riley has been one of my favorite featherweight prospects for a long time, even before he signed with the UFC. His boxing is incredibly polished, his combinations are sharp, and he mixes in kicks effectively to complement his striking. His debut did reveal some defensive grappling concerns, but he’s training at an excellent gym, and I expect those areas to improve quickly.
Kai Kamaka is no easy assignment, though. He’s an experienced veteran with proven durability and is coming off an impressive win over Dakota Hope. Kamaka has the volume striking to stay competitive, but I think his biggest advantage comes in the grappling, and I’d expect him to test Riley there whenever possible. Even with that concern, I still believe Riley is the superior striker and will land the cleaner, more damaging shots throughout the fight. Kamaka’s toughness should allow him to hear the final horn, but I see Riley earning a hard-fought decision.
Final Pick: Luke Riley by Decision
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez
This is a really interesting crossroads fight in the bantamweight division. Cody Garbrandt returns after picking up a victory in a fight that many felt could have gone the other way. While he still possesses incredible hand speed and fight-ending power, his style has changed dramatically in recent years. His output has dropped, he fights much more cautiously than he once did, and his durability has become a growing concern as his career has progressed.
Adrian Yanez reminded everyone how talented he is with his performance against Ricky Simon. After a rough stretch, he looked much more like the exciting prospect who originally climbed the rankings. Once Yanez establishes his jab and settles into his rhythm, he’s one of the smoothest boxers in the division. His chin isn’t perfect, which always creates some risk against a puncher like Garbrandt, but outside of that one-shot knockout threat, I believe Yanez is the better fighter at this stage of their careers. If he avoids Garbrandt’s early power, I expect him to outland and outwork Cody over three rounds to earn the decision.
Final Pick: Adrian Yanez by Decision
Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison
One of the most highly anticipated UFC debuts in recent memory is finally here as Olympic gold medalist and one of the greatest collegiate wrestlers ever, Gable Steveson, makes his first walk to the Octagon. Training alongside Jon Jones and surrounded by a world-class coaching staff, Steveson enters the UFC with enormous expectations despite being very new to MMA. He has just three professional fights, but he has looked impressive in each, earning quick finishes while showcasing the athleticism that makes him such a unique heavyweight prospect. His striking continues to improve, and with his elite wrestling pedigree, he has all the physical tools to become a serious force in the division. While he has shown a willingness to absorb a few shots during his development, that’s something I expect to improve as he gains more experience.
Across the cage is Elisha Ellison, who appears to be a favorable matchup for Steveson’s debut. Ellison has more professional MMA experience and has already competed in the UFC, but he hasn’t shown the level of skill needed to suggest he can derail one of the promotion’s biggest prospects. This feels like a matchup designed to showcase Steveson’s potential, and while the betting odds reflect that, it’s difficult to argue against them. I expect Steveson to use his speed and athleticism to hurt Ellison early on the feet before taking the fight to the ground, where his wrestling should take over. From there, I see him securing a dominant first-round ground-and-pound finish. As he continues to develop his overall MMA game, Steveson has all the makings of a future heavyweight contender.
Final Pick: Gable Steveson by KO/TKO
Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whitaker
This featured prelim is a really interesting matchup as Robert Whittaker makes his light heavyweight debut against the always-dangerous Nikita Krylov. Krylov is coming off a solid win over Modestas Bukauskas, a fight where I doubted him because of concerns about his durability. While he proved me wrong that night, I still think his chin remains a question mark. Krylov is at his best when he can utilize his high-level grappling, and he also carries legitimate power on the feet. However, he doesn’t always make the best use of his length and can leave himself out of position during exchanges, which becomes a dangerous habit when facing an accurate counter striker.
On the other side, Whittaker moves up to light heavyweight in one of the most intriguing storylines on the card. Although he’s dropped a few of his recent fights and is entering the later stages of his career, he remains one of the most technically sound fighters in the UFC. His takedown defense has consistently been elite, and his striking is built around exceptional footwork, a sharp jab, and well-timed kicks that keep opponents guessing. Moving up in weight does raise some concerns about how his durability will hold up against naturally bigger punchers, but I also think he’ll have a significant speed advantage in this matchup. Overall, I believe Whittaker’s movement, precision, and defensive wrestling will prevent Krylov from establishing his preferred game. If he can keep the fight standing, I expect his speed and accuracy to eventually lead to a knockout victory.
Final Pick: Robert Whitaker by KO/TKO
King Green vs Terrance McKinney
We have an absolutely electric fight to kick off the main card, and it’s nearly impossible to feel confident picking a Terrance McKinney fight. No matter who he’s facing, you know chaos is almost guaranteed. This time, he takes on the veteran King Green, who has looked surprisingly sharp in his recent performances. While Green is nearing the later stages of his career, he still possesses outstanding speed, slick defensive movement, and some of the cleanest boxing in the lightweight division. His grappling is also underrated and gives him another avenue to win the fight. The biggest concern, however, is his durability. At this stage of his career, his chin has become a real question mark, especially against an explosive finisher like McKinney.
As for McKinney, everyone knows exactly what to expect. He comes flying out of the gate looking for an immediate finish, whether it’s with his explosive striking or dangerous grappling. Few lightweights are as threatening in the opening minutes of a fight, but if he can’t get the finish early, his cardio has historically been a major issue and the momentum often swings dramatically. That’s what makes this matchup so difficult to predict. If Green survives the early onslaught, I think he’s the more skilled and complete fighter and would likely take over as the fight progresses. The problem is I’m not convinced he can make it through those opening exchanges. McKinney’s explosiveness and finishing ability are simply too dangerous to overlook, so I’ll take him to find another early knockout, even though this is one of the least confident picks on the entire card.
Final Pick: Terrance McKinney by KO/TKO
Brandon Royval vs Lone’er Kavanagh
Continuing the main card, we have another outstanding matchup in the flyweight division. Brandon Royval has been one of the division’s top contenders for years and has built his résumé by consistently facing elite competition. He is a tricky southpaw with excellent length for the weight class, high-level footwork, and a relentless volume that makes him difficult to deal with over the course of a fight. However, this is also the most vulnerable we’ve seen Royval in quite some time. Coming off the first knockout loss of his UFC career, it’s fair to wonder how much confidence he’ll have stepping back into the Octagon against another dangerous striker.
Across from him is the surging Lone’er Kavanagh, who is coming off a statement victory over Brandon Moreno. I questioned Kavanagh going into that fight because of concerns about his cardio, but he completely answered those doubts with an outstanding performance. He has quickly established himself as one of the sharpest strikers in the flyweight division, showcasing excellent shot selection, lightning-fast hands, and impressive takedown defense. I think Kavanagh will be the faster fighter in this matchup and consistently land the cleaner, more damaging strikes. Royval is always dangerous and has the experience to make this competitive, but I believe Kavanagh’s youth, speed, and technical striking will allow him to outpoint Royval over three rounds and continue his rise toward title contention.
Final Pick: Lone’er Kavanagh by Decision
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista
Next up is a fascinating bantamweight rematch that could have major title implications down the line. It’s also one of the hardest fights on the card to confidently predict. Cory Sandhagen won the first meeting, and he enters this rematch looking to bounce back after falling short against Merab Dvalishvili in his title fight. Sandhagen is one of the smartest and most adaptable fighters in the UFC. His footwork is elite, he switches stances effortlessly, and his movement makes him incredibly difficult to hit cleanly. He’s also a very well-rounded martial artist, with excellent scrambling ability and a knack for threatening submissions whenever opponents try to control him on the ground.
Mario Bautista, however, has evolved tremendously since these two last shared the cage. The biggest leap in his game has been his grappling, which has become one of his greatest strengths, and his submission skills continue to improve, as he showed in his most recent performance. His boxing has also become much sharper, making him a more complete fighter than ever before. I expect Bautista to make this an extremely competitive fight, but I’m still leaning toward Sandhagen. In the end, I think Cory’s versatility and ability to adapt will be the difference. His movement, scrambling, and defensive awareness should allow him to neutralize Bautista’s grappling and edge out another hard-fought victory. This is a very difficult fight to call, but I’ll side with Sandhagen by decision.
Final Pick: Cory Sandhagen by Decision
Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett
Here we are at the co-main event, and this may actually be the toughest fight on the entire card to predict. Benoit Saint Denis has quietly put together another impressive winning streak and continues to look like one of the most dangerous lightweights in the division. His style is built around relentless forward pressure, even if it comes at the expense of his striking defense. He carries respectable power, throws a nasty body kick, and is always looking to force chaotic exchanges. Where Saint Denis truly excels, though, is on the mat. His top control is among the best in the division, and once he establishes position, he does an excellent job wearing opponents down. The one area of concern is when he’s forced onto his back, as he has shown that getting back to his feet can be a challenge against strong grapplers.
Across the cage is Paddy Pimblett, who is coming off a loss to Justin Gaethje earlier this year. Looking back, that defeat has aged much better considering what Gaethje has gone on to accomplish. Paddy has made tremendous improvements in his striking, and while his defense still isn’t perfect, I actually believe he is the more dynamic and technical striker in this matchup. He offers much more variety with his attacks, and his flying knee and knee up the middle are legitimate weapons that Saint Denis will have to respect. Of course, Pimblett’s greatest strength remains his jiu-jitsu. While he has occasionally struggled to secure takedowns against opponents who are determined to keep the fight standing, that likely won’t be an issue here since Saint Denis will probably be initiating many of the grappling exchanges himself.
In the end, I’m leaning toward Paddy Pimblett to get the biggest win of his career. Saint Denis has a tendency to leave his head on the outside when shooting for takedowns, creating opportunities for opponents to attack front headlock positions. I also think Paddy has more tools on the feet, as both men can be hit, but Pimblett’s striking is more varied and unpredictable. We saw Dan Hooker have success using front kicks and straight attacks to disrupt Saint Denis, and I could see Paddy employing a similar game plan. Most importantly, I think the grappling exchanges actually favor Pimblett in this matchup. If Saint Denis shoots a desperate takedown after struggling to close the distance, I can see Paddy capitalizing on the scramble and eventually locking up a submission. It’s an incredibly close fight, but I’ll take Pimblett by choke after a competitive battle.
Final Pick: Paddy Pimblett by Submission
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway
We have finally arrived at the main event of an absolutely incredible card. While it isn’t a title fight, it features the long-awaited return of the biggest star the sport has ever seen—The Notorious, Conor McGregor. As a UFC fan, it’s hard not to be excited because there was a point where it genuinely felt like this day might never come. McGregor hasn’t competed since suffering his devastating leg injury five years ago, and now he returns in a rematch with Max Holloway. It’s worth noting that this is a very different matchup than the first meeting, as both men are older, more experienced, and now competing two weight classes above where they originally fought.
From a pure entertainment standpoint, I think the best outcome for the sport would be a McGregor victory. The questions surrounding his return are what make this fight so fascinating. After such a long layoff and a career-altering injury, nobody truly knows what version of McGregor will show up. That said, I actually like this matchup taking place at welterweight. McGregor has competed successfully at 170 pounds before, while Holloway is entering completely unfamiliar territory. If McGregor comes out aggressively, refuses to give Holloway any respect, and uses his natural size and physicality to bully him early, he absolutely has a path to victory. His power has translated well at welterweight in the past, but it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll still possess the same explosiveness and speed after so much time away from the Octagon.
On the other side is Max Holloway, who has continued to compete against the best fighters in the world while McGregor has been sidelined. Holloway has evolved tremendously over the years, improving his footwork, defensive awareness, and already elite boxing. His pace, cardio, and relentless volume have always been among the best in the sport, allowing him to overwhelm opponents as fights progress. There are still a few questions, however. This fight takes place at 170 pounds, a significant jump considering Holloway spent most of his career at featherweight and even looked physically outmatched in grappling exchanges at lightweight against Charles Oliveira. While McGregor isn’t the grappler Oliveira is, the size difference is something to consider. Holloway has also absorbed an incredible amount of damage throughout his career, and after several wars inside the Octagon, this may be the most vulnerable version of him we’ve seen.
In the end, this was one of the hardest predictions I’ve made all year because I can genuinely see a path for McGregor to pull off the upset. If he comes out fast, lands early, and uses his size to dictate the fight, he could absolutely shock the world. Given everything we’ve seen in MMA recently, I wouldn’t be surprised if McGregor found a knockout in his comeback. Still, I have to be realistic. Holloway has remained active against elite competition while McGregor has spent years on the sidelines recovering. He’s simply been sharper, more consistent, and has continued to evolve as a fighter. I expect McGregor to have success early and create some tense moments, but if he can’t secure the finish in the opening rounds, I think the momentum shifts dramatically. Holloway’s pace, durability, and relentless output should eventually overwhelm McGregor, allowing him to weather the early storm before finding a late TKO victory. As much as I’d love to see McGregor complete one of the greatest comebacks in UFC history, I think Holloway gets his hand raised in the end.
Final Pick: Max Holloway by KO/TKO
