The UFC returns to Baku, Azerbaijan, for another Fight Night event, and while this card may not be loaded with star power, there are several intriguing matchups that should produce some exciting action. The main event, in particular, is one of the toughest fights to predict so far this year, which is a testament to the work the matchmakers have done in putting this one together. Last week’s event wasn’t great from a prediction standpoint, as I finished 6-6 on my picks, a result I wasn’t particularly happy with. That said, a new card means a fresh opportunity to get things right. I’ll jump straight into the breakdowns and give my thoughts on each matchup, with my official pick for every fight clearly marked in bold at the end of each analysis.
Tahir Abdullayev vs Jefferson Nascimento
Right off the bat, we have one of the tougher fights on the card to break down, as both fighters will be making their UFC debuts. Tahir Abdullayev is an incredibly physical athlete with a muscular frame and an aggressive style. While his technique may not always be the cleanest, he makes up for it with power, strength, and a willingness to push a relentless pace. He looks to impose his physicality wherever the fight takes place, whether that’s bullying opponents in striking exchanges or grinding them down on the mat. However, the level of competition he has faced leaves some questions unanswered, making it difficult to gauge exactly how his skills will translate against UFC-caliber opposition.
On the other side, Jefferson Nascimento moves up from lightweight to welterweight and appears to be the more polished and technical fighter. He is the faster striker, puts his combinations together well, and should have opportunities to capitalize on Abdullayev’s defensive openings as he pressures forward. Nascimento has also competed against stronger opposition during his time in LFA, which gives me a bit more confidence in what we’ve seen from him. If he can defend the early takedown attempts and avoid getting caught in prolonged physical exchanges, I think his speed and technical striking will allow him to land the cleaner shots throughout the fight. Add in the possibility of Abdullayev slowing down if he can’t secure an early finish, and I like Nascimento to pull away as the fight progresses.
Final Pick: Jefferson Nascimento by Decision
Bekzat Almakhan vs Jean Matsumoto
This is a really intriguing matchup in the bantamweight division between two talented fighters who have already tested themselves against quality competition. Bekzat Almakhan is one of the most explosive and powerful athletes at 135 pounds, capable of changing a fight with a single shot. His losses have come against strong opposition, including Aleksandre Topuria, who many believe is destined for the rankings. While Almakhan’s grappling defense can be a concern at times, he does a good job scrambling back to his feet and creating chaotic situations. His biggest weakness may be his tendency to slow down as fights progress, but in the early rounds he is incredibly dangerous and difficult to deal with.
Across from him, Jean Matsumoto is another fighter who has consistently faced tough competition, with several of his losses coming in razor-close contests. He is a well-rounded fighter who combines solid Muay Thai striking with effective grappling and generally does a good job blending the two together. However, one recurring issue is that he sometimes struggles to clearly separate himself from his opponents, which can leave close rounds up for debate. Overall, I think Almakhan’s explosiveness and ability to inflict visible damage will be the difference here, particularly in the first two rounds. Matsumoto has shown a tendency to absorb clean shots, and I believe Almakhan’s power and aggression will stand out to the judges enough for him to earn a decision victory.
Final Pick: Bekzat Almakhan by Decision
Daniil Donchenko vs Theodor Berggren
I am really excited to see Daniil Donchenko back inside the UFC Octagon. He is one of the most entertaining prospects to come off The Ultimate Fighter, and I believe he has a very bright future in the promotion. Donchenko’s Muay Thai is outstanding, as he switches stances seamlessly and attacks with devastating knees and elbows. What makes him particularly dangerous is how effectively he has adapted his striking to MMA, something that many pure Muay Thai fighters struggle to do. He is explosive, moves well, mixes his attacks intelligently, and constantly keeps opponents guessing. While his UFC debut didn’t go exactly as many expected, I don’t think that performance changes the fact that he has all the tools to become a serious threat in the division.
Standing across from him is UFC newcomer Theodor Berggren. Berggren appears to be a solid athlete with a well-rounded skill set, showing effective kicking attacks and the ability to grapple when needed. However, this feels like a difficult assignment for a fighter making his UFC debut. Donchenko has already shared the cage with higher-level competition, and I don’t think Berggren has faced anyone close to his caliber. Alex Morono was able to survive Donchenko’s offensive onslaught through experience and veteran savvy, qualities that Berggren simply won’t have. Overall, I believe Donchenko’s aggression, striking variety, and overall experience against tougher opposition will be too much to handle, and I expect him to make a statement with an impressive finish.
Final Pick: Daniil Donchenko by KO/TKO
Kaan Ofli vs Javier Reyes
I’ve gone back and forth on this matchup quite a bit because both fighters have clear paths to victory. Kaan Ofli is, in my opinion, the more technically skilled and well-rounded fighter. He has solid striking, good jiu-jitsu, and generally makes smart decisions inside the cage. However, one issue that has followed him is his ability to consistently get the fight to the ground, where his grappling can have the biggest impact. His last fight also left me with some doubts, as I thought he was clearly losing to Yizha before finding a way to steal the decision. While a win is a win, it wasn’t the most convincing performance.
On the other side is Javier Reyes, who isn’t nearly as polished from a technical standpoint and has several defensive flaws that can be exploited. That said, he makes up for those shortcomings with relentless pressure, physicality, and an all-out brawling style that is incredibly difficult to deal with. Reyes is also extremely durable, allowing him to absorb damage while continuing to move forward and force chaotic exchanges. Ultimately, I don’t think Ofli has the power to keep Reyes honest or discourage him from walking him down. I expect Reyes to overwhelm Ofli with constant pressure, eat a few shots along the way, and eventually break through with his awkward, aggressive offense to score a knockout victory.
Final Pick: Javier Reyes by KO/TKO
Nursulton Ruziboev vs Andrey Pulyaev
Nursulton Ruziboev finally makes his return to the Octagon, and it feels like it’s been a while since we’ve seen him compete. Despite still being relatively young, he has amassed an incredible amount of professional experience, which is a major advantage. His physical frame is enormous for the division, and it’s hard to believe he once competed at welterweight. Ruziboev possesses a devastating left hand with legitimate knockout power, and he’s dangerous whenever the fight stays standing. He also appears to have the edge in the grappling department, giving him the option to mix in takedowns and control the fight on the mat if he chooses.
Across from him is Andrey Pulyaev, who is a talented fighter in his own right. He has a good frame for the weight class and is a technical striker who does his best work at range behind sharp straight punches and well-timed kicks. In his last outing against Ateba Gautier, Pulyaev was hurt multiple times but showed impressive toughness by surviving all three rounds against one of the division’s biggest finishers. Even so, I think this is a difficult stylistic matchup for him. Pulyaev has a tendency to give ground early in fights, and I believe Ruziboev will take advantage by applying pressure, landing the heavier shots, and mixing in his grappling when necessary. Overall, I expect Ruziboev to put together a well-rounded performance and earn a convincing decision victory.
Final Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev by Decision
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Julius Walker
I’m glad to see Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev staying active because he looks like one of the most dangerous rising contenders in the light heavyweight division. Yakhyaev is an absolute powerhouse with explosive knockout power, but he’s much more than just a heavy-handed striker. He maintains a high output, has a well-rounded skill set, and possesses a dangerous submission game that makes him a threat wherever the fight takes place. Perhaps most impressive is how quickly he has been dispatching opponents, consistently finding early finishes in dominant fashion.
Across the cage, Julius Walker is a good athlete for the division, but this feels like a very difficult matchup for him. His striking lacks the polish needed to compete with someone as dangerous as Yakhyaev, and while he has shown flashes in the clinch, his grappling can be sloppy and leave him vulnerable. Walker may be able to survive for a short time by tying things up against the fence, but I don’t see many paths to victory for him. I expect Yakhyaev to overwhelm him with his explosiveness, land the cleaner and more powerful shots, and secure another early first-round finish.
Final Pick: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev by KO/TKO
Farman Hasanov vs Eric Nolan
This has the potential to be a competitive fight, but it’s also one of the tougher matchups to evaluate because there are still plenty of questions surrounding both fighters. Farman Hasanov makes his UFC debut in front of his home crowd, and while he remains relatively unproven, he did compete in LFA, which is a respectable proving ground before reaching the UFC. Hasanov appears to be an excellent grappler with explosive striking early in fights, making him a dangerous opponent from the opening bell. The biggest concern, however, is that he hasn’t faced much adversity throughout his career, leaving questions about how he’ll respond if he can’t dominate early or if the fight extends into the later rounds.
On the other side, Eric Nolan put together an impressive UFC debut against the highly regarded Baisangur Susurkaev, giving us a much clearer picture of his abilities. Nolan is a technical boxer with a sharp, well-timed left hook, and while his grappling is serviceable, his striking is clearly his biggest strength. More importantly, he has already shown he can compete with quality opposition, remain composed under pressure, and fight through adversity. I think that’s the difference in this matchup. If Nolan can weather Hasanov’s early explosiveness and defend the initial takedown attempts, I expect the fight to swing in his favor as Hasanov begins to slow down. From there, Nolan’s cleaner boxing and composure should allow him to take over and eventually find a late finish.
Final Pick: Eric Nolan by KO/TKO
Abus Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejcuk
This is a really intriguing matchup between two talented middleweights. The biggest storyline surrounding Abus Magomedov has always been his cardio. During the opening round, he looks like one of the most dangerous fighters in the division, combining explosive striking with a high-level grappling game that can overwhelm opponents. The problem is that once the fight gets beyond the first round, his pace often drops dramatically, and his body language tends to reflect that fatigue. This is a slight step down in competition for Magomedov, though, and when he’s fresh, he’s capable of looking like a legitimate contender.
On the other side, Michal Oleksiejczuk has shown tremendous improvement since joining the Fighting Nerds camp. His fight IQ appears to have taken a noticeable step forward, and he’s become a much more composed and complete fighter. Oleksiejczuk fights out of the southpaw stance with excellent hand speed, real knockout power, effective head movement, and constant forward pressure. While he hasn’t faced the same caliber of competition as Magomedov recently, I really like the development we’ve seen in his overall game. If he can survive Magomedov’s dangerous first round, I think the momentum shifts dramatically in his favor. I simply don’t trust Magomedov’s cardio over three rounds, and I believe Oleksiejczuk’s improved fight IQ, pressure, and boxing will allow him to take over late and earn the victory.
Final Pick: Michael Oleksiejcuk by Decision
Ikram Aliskerov vs Brunno Ferreira
This is another outstanding matchup in the middleweight division. Ikram Aliskerov was tested in his last outing against Jungyong Park, where he had to fight through fatigue against a durable veteran. Aliskerov is a well-rounded fighter with solid striking and strong wrestling, and he has the fight IQ to mix his skills together effectively. That said, his striking defense can be a concern at times, as he is willing to absorb shots while looking to set up his own offense. Against a dangerous finisher, that could become a major factor.
Across the cage, Brunno Ferreira remains one of the most explosive and dangerous middleweights in the division. Although he was knocked out by Gregory Rodrigues in his last fight, that result shouldn’t overshadow the tools he brings to the table. Ferreira has legitimate one-punch knockout power, excellent takedown defense, and even when opponents do get him to the mat, he has proven to be a capable jiu-jitsu practitioner. This is a difficult fight to call, but I’m leaning toward Ferreira finding the finish. Aliskerov has shown he can be hit cleanly, and against someone with Ferreira’s power, it may only take one mistake. If Ferreira can keep the fight standing for the majority of the contest, I think he lands the fight-ending shot.
Final Pick: Brunno Ferreira by KO/TKO
Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson
This is one of the tougher fights on the card to predict. Asu Almabayev has put together an impressive run in the UFC, with his only loss coming against Manel Kape. His wrestling is the foundation of his game, as he relentlessly pursues takedowns and is incredibly difficult to shake once he gets his hands on opponents. That constant grappling threat also creates openings for his striking, making him more dangerous than people sometimes give him credit for. On top of that, Almabayev and his team consistently come into fights with well-prepared game plans that maximize his strengths.
On the other side is Charles Johnson, who remains one of the most unpredictable fighters in the flyweight division. We’ve seen him defeat elite competition, but we’ve also seen him come up short in fights many expected him to win. Johnson is a well-rounded striker who throws sharp straight punches, mixes in effective kicks, switches stances smoothly, and maintains an impressive pace from start to finish. He has also shown solid takedown defense throughout his UFC career. The biggest issue is consistency—you never quite know which version of Johnson is going to show up. While I wouldn’t be surprised if he defended the takedowns and outstruck Almabayev, I simply trust Almabayev’s consistency and game planning more. I expect him to secure enough takedowns, accumulate meaningful control time, and earn a hard-fought decision victory.
Final Pick: Asu Almabayev by Decision
Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo
Nazim Sadykhov returns to fight in his home country after putting on one of the most memorable and entertaining performances of last year. He should have a clear advantage on the feet in this matchup, as he is a sharp southpaw with excellent boxing, legitimate power, and the ability to put together damaging combinations. He also mixes in kicks effectively to keep opponents guessing, and one of his biggest strengths is his willingness to thrive in chaotic exchanges. Sadykhov is a capable grappler when needed, but this is a fight where I expect his striking to be the deciding factor.
Across the cage is the young and improving Matheus Camilo, but I haven’t been overly impressed with what we’ve seen from him in the UFC so far. His jiu-jitsu is solid, and he throws a good low kick that he uses consistently to chip away at opponents. However, his cardio has been a concern, and he has shown a tendency to absorb too many clean shots on the feet. I think that’s a dangerous combination against a pressure fighter like Sadykhov. As the fight progresses, I expect Sadykhov’s boxing combinations and relentless pace to wear Camilo down, eventually forcing a stoppage and earning him a TKO victory.
Final Pick: Nazim Sadykhov by KO/TKO
Shara Magomedov vs Michel Pereira
The co-main event features another intriguing matchup between two middleweights looking to break into the rankings. Shara Magomedov has quickly become one of the most entertaining strikers in the division, with his only UFC loss coming against Michael “Venom” Page—a difficult stylistic matchup for almost anyone. Magomedov is a dynamic, kick-heavy striker who does an excellent job managing distance with his speed and movement. While his boxing isn’t the cleanest part of his game, his ability to control range and systematically break opponents down makes him a difficult puzzle to solve. Although he hasn’t faced the strongest level of competition yet, he has consistently looked impressive in his victories.
Standing across from him is Michel Pereira, one of the most unpredictable fighters on the UFC roster. At his best, Pereira is incredibly explosive, athletic, and capable of pulling off spectacular techniques that few fighters would even attempt. His grappling is also underrated and could become an important part of his game plan in this matchup. The biggest concern, however, has always been his cardio. Pereira often slows dramatically after a fast start, and that has cost him in several fights. I think Magomedov’s disciplined striking, movement, and ability to control range will gradually frustrate Pereira and force him to work at an unsustainable pace. Once Pereira begins to fade, I expect Magomedov to take over and eventually secure a late stoppage.
Final Pick: Shara Magomedov by KO/TKO
Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres
We have finally arrived at the main event, and this is the fight I’ve gone back and forth on the most. It’s a fascinating stylistic matchup because there are legitimate paths to victory for both men. On one side, you have a proven veteran who has consistently fought the best in the division, and on the other, a surging contender with frightening finishing ability. It feels like the type of fight that could have major implications for the lightweight division, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it play out in several different ways.
Rafael Fiziev is one of the cleanest and most technical Muay Thai strikers the UFC has ever seen. His combinations are crisp, his body kicks are devastating, and his movement makes him incredibly difficult to hit cleanly. He excels in close-range exchanges with sharp boxing and has developed excellent takedown defense over the years while also showing he can grapple when necessary. The biggest knock on Fiziev isn’t his skill set—it’s his size. He has often looked undersized against some of the division’s larger lightweights, and despite recent losses, it’s important to remember they came against elite competition. Across from him is Manuel Torres, one of the most explosive and dangerous finishers at 155 pounds. Torres is an exceptional athlete who fights with complete confidence in his power, and his aggressive style has led to a string of first-round finishes. He is relentless moving forward, throws devastating punches, and mixes in vicious elbows and knees when the fight gets into close quarters.
After weighing both sides, I’m leaning toward Manuel Torres to continue his rise. Fiziev is the more polished and technically sound fighter, but I think Torres’ size, explosiveness, and constant pressure create a difficult stylistic matchup for him. Torres won’t have to overextend to get into range against the smaller Fiziev, and I expect him to march forward without giving Fiziev much room to settle into his rhythm. That approach is certainly dangerous because Fiziev has the technique to punish mistakes, but Torres has shown he is willing to take those risks in order to land fight-ending shots. I think his physical advantages and overwhelming pressure eventually pay off, leading to a first-round knockout. If Fiziev survives the early storm, the fight becomes much more competitive, but I’ll side with Torres to get the finish before that becomes a factor.
Final Pick: Manuel Torres by KO/TKO
