After a one-week break, the UFC returns with a stacked Fight Night card in Houston, Texas. I’m coming in with some momentum after going 11-2 at UFC Vegas 113, where I felt I had a strong read on the matchups from top to bottom. Let’s see if we can keep that rolling this week. I’ll be breaking down the entire card—starting with quick looks at the prelims and working our way up to a full breakdown of the main event. If you’re just here for the picks, feel free to scroll ahead—I don’t want to waste your time. Final picks will be clearly marked in bold after each breakdown.
Juliana Miller vs Carli Judice
The opening fight of the night feels like a pretty easy matchup to breakdown. For Juliana Miller to have a chance, she needs to get Carli Judice to the ground early. Miller’s path to victory runs through her jiu-jitsu, and an early submission is likely her best opportunity to win. However, if Judice is able to keep the fight standing, the advantage shifts heavily in her favor. Judice is very dangerous on the feet, while Miller has shown she can be hittable in striking exchanges. If this stays upright, I expect Judice to find clean shots and potentially secure the knockout.
Final Pick: Carli Judice by KO/TKO
Jordan Leavitt vs Yadier del Valle
This has the potential to be a fun, grappling-heavy matchup given how comfortable both fighters are on the ground. Jordan Leavitt is a crafty and creative grappler with strong scrambling ability. He also mixes in solid leg kicks that can help disrupt rhythm on the feet. However, this feels like a difficult stylistic matchup for him. Yadier del Valle appears to have advantages in several key areas, particularly on the feet, where his boxing and forward pressure could cause problems for Leavitt in extended exchanges. Del Valle’s ability to dictate the pace and close distance should allow him to land the cleaner, more impactful shots. Even in the grappling—where Leavitt usually excels—I don’t see a clear edge. Del Valle is also strong in scrambles and dangerous from top position. I could even see him hurting Leavitt on the feet before following him to the ground for a submission. Overall, I lean toward del Valle who has the more complete skill set in this matchup.
Final Pick: Yadier del Valle by Submission
Phil Rowe vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Moving into the welterweight division, Phil Rowe takes a short-notice fight against Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani, who is coming off an impressive performance on DWCS. Rowe has been inconsistent throughout his career, which makes him a difficult fighter to confidently pick, though he will likely have a noticeable size advantage that adds an interesting aspect to the matchup. That said, he has shown weakness when opponents are able to take him down and control him. Lebosnoyani may have impressed people with his highlight-reel knockout on the Contender Series, but he’s more than just a powerful striker—he is also an extremely high-level grappler. Given Rowe’s past struggles with takedown defense, Lebosnoyani could exploit those holes to dictate the fight. Overall, I believe Lebosnoyani has more paths to victory in this matchup.
Final Pick: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by Submission
Ramiz Brahimaj vs Punahele Soriano
I’m very excited for this matchup. Ramiz Brahimaj is riding a strong bounce-back run with three consecutive wins, all by finish. He possesses high-level grappling and a particularly dangerous guillotine choke, making him a constant submission threat. I also like his footwork on the feet—he moves well and doesn’t just rely on his grappling to win fights. On the other side, Punahele Soriano likely holds a slight edge in pure striking power. He’s explosive and can do real damage if he lands clean. Soriano is also a capable offensive wrestler, but that could be risky in this matchup, as engaging heavily in grappling exchanges with Brahimaj opens the door to submissions. We’ve also seen Soriano slow down as fights progress, which could become a factor if this extends beyond the early rounds. Overall, I really like Brahimaj’s finishing upside here. If Soriano leans on his usual wrestling-heavy approach, I think there’s a strong chance he gets caught in a submission.
Final Pick: Ramiz Brahimaj by Submission
Nora Cornolle vs Joselyne Edwards
Next up is a rematch in the women’s bantamweight division, where Nora Cornolle won the first matchup against Joselyne Edwards. Cornolle is an aggressive striker who constantly looks for the finish and isn’t afraid to engage, but she has shown vulnerabilities when it comes to defending takedowns. That’s an area Edwards should look to exploit in this fight. Edwards is the more well-rounded fighter, with advantages in youth and athleticism, and she typically does a good job of managing range. However, I believe her clearest path to victory is leaning on her grappling rather than striking. If she prioritizes getting Cornolle to the ground and controlling the fight there, she should be able to get a clear win.
Final Pick: Jocelyne Edwards by Decision
Alden Coria vs Luis Gurule
In the next fight, Alden Coria returns after a surprising performance over Alessandro Costa, where he showed impressive striking and a willingness to get scrappy. Coria trains out of the same gym as Joshua Van which really shows in his fighting style. His opponent, Luis Gurule, has struggled in the UFC, losing his first two fights, and while he is fairly well-rounded, he often looks like he’s just sparring and hasn’t shown the urgency needed to do serious damage. Coria should be able to secure the win by doing more and maintaining higher output throughout the fight.
Final Pick: Alden Coria by Decision
Ode’ Osbourne vs Alibi Idiris
The next fight on the card feels like a toss-up to me. Ode’ Osbourne hasn’t had the most consistent run in the UFC, but he’s still a very dangerous opponent, especially given his size and power for the flyweight division. When he manages range well, his counter-striking can be a serious weapon. He has had issues on the ground in the past, but I’m not convinced that Alibi Idiris will be able to consistently exploit that. Idiris is coming off a loss in the finale of TUF to Joseph Morales, and while he’s flashy on the feet with a lot of spinning attacks, those techniques can leave him open to counters. He typically prefers to strike rather than grapple, and at this point, I don’t think he’s proven he can compete with UFC level competition. If he ends up standing with Osbourne, that likely favors Osbourne’s length, timing, and power, which could lead to a knockout.
Final Pick: Ode’ Osbourne by KO/TKO
Chidi Njokuani vs Carlos Leal
This is easily the hardest fight to predict on the card—I’ve gone back and forth on it all week. Chidi Njokuani is the more technical striker in this matchup. He does an excellent job fighting long and using his significant reach advantage, and he’s even dangerous in close with his elbows and Thai clinch. When he’s able to control distance and dictate the pace, he can pick opponents apart with precision.
Carlos Leal, on the other hand, is an extremely aggressive fighter who throws every strike with fight-ending intentions. That kind of pressure can be effective, but it also creates openings—especially since he often keeps his hands low at his hips, which leaves him vulnerable to clean counters. At the same time, that unorthodox style allows him to generate power from unpredictable angles. His willingness to take risks and show little respect for his opponent can either overwhelm someone or get him into serious trouble. Because this fight feels so evenly matched, I’m leaning toward the fighter I believe will land first. I expect Leal to be the aggressor, assuming he isn’t hesitant after his last knockout loss, and to pressure Njokuani enough to prevent him from establishing range. Still, this is a true coin flip—but it’s hard to imagine the fight going the distance.
Final Pick: Carlos Leal by KO/TKO
Zachary Reese vs Michel Pereira
This is a very intriguing matchup in my eyes. Zachary Reese has mostly been facing the lowest tier of the division, so this is a significant step up and a big opportunity for him. That said, he’s shown clear improvement each time he’s stepped into the Octagon. Reese is more well-rounded than people may realize—he’s had success with his grappling and has also displayed legitimate knockout power on the feet. I like that versatility for him in a matchup against Pereira. My only concern is his durability early on, as Pereira is typically at his most explosive in the opening round.
Michel Pereira enters this fight on a three-fight losing streak and, since being broken down by Anthony Hernandez, he hasn’t looked like the same fighter. At his best, Pereira is extremely dangerous and dynamic, but his cardio has long been a glaring weakness—arguably one of the worst gas tanks we’ve seen in the UFC. He’s explosive early, but his effectiveness drops off significantly as the fight progresses. Even though this is a step down in competition for him, I just don’t trust Pereira to put together a complete performance right now. I think Reese can mix in his grappling, extend the fight into deeper waters, and take over once Pereira begins to fade.
Final Pick: Zachary Reese by Decision
Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell
Two undefeated prospects collide here, but someone’s “0” has got to go. Jacobe Smith was originally scheduled to face Seokhyeon Ko in a matchup I was really excited about, but now he draws Josiah Harrell, who steps in on short notice for his UFC debut. Smith is an extremely athletic and explosive fighter, and his biggest strength is his high-level wrestling. He also appears to have a noticeable size advantage in this matchup, which could play a major role if he’s able to impose his physicality early. While Smith has shown he can slow down if he doesn’t secure a finish in the opening round, his UFC experience and ability to dictate where the fight takes place give him a clear edge here.
Harrell is a tough, wrestling-based fighter in his own right, but this is a difficult situation—making your promotional debut on short notice against a strong, explosive grappler is far from ideal. Even if Harrell is competitive in the wrestling exchanges, Smith’s size, athleticism, and familiarity with the UFC stage should allow him to control positions and create damage opportunities. Ultimately, I see Smith using his physical advantages to secure takedowns, wear Harrell down, and potentially find a TKO as the fight progresses.
Final Pick: Jacobe Smith by KO/TKO
Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija
Moving to the heavyweight division, we get a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup. Sergei Spivac is at his best when he can take the fight to the ground, so his path to victory is clear: close the distance, secure the takedown, and control from top position. The challenge, however, is getting it there against a dangerous striker like Ante Delija. I like that Delija is training with Tom Aspinall’s camp, as he’s getting high-level work with some of the best heavyweights in the world. For this division, Delija has solid boxing and impressive quickness, which will be a major factor. If he manages distance well and times Spivac’s entries, there should be opportunities to land clean shots as Spivac looks to close the gap. I’m not overthinking this one—I think Delija keeps it standing and finds the knockout this weekend.
Final Pick: Ante Delija by KO/TKO
Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa
This is an extremely fun matchup in the featherweight division. Dan Ige has served as the division’s ultimate gatekeeper—durable, experienced, and always dangerous. He carries serious power in his right hand and is constantly hunting for the one-shot knockout. The downside to that approach is that he can give away minutes while waiting for the big moment. Even so, Ige is a tough out for anyone. He’s faced high-level competition throughout his career, and his durability and grit consistently show up. I also think his wrestling is a bit underrated, though he’ll need to be cautious about leaning on it here, as Costa has some sneaky submissions.
Melquizael Costa, on the other hand, is on a tremendous run. He’s coming off an impressive head-kick knockout of Morgan Charriere, which was unexpected. I like Costa’s kicking game and overall activity in this matchup. He should look to stay at range, avoid extended boxing exchanges, and limit opportunities for Ige to land that right hand. Costa could also do strong work in the clinch, and he remains dangerous if Ige decides to take the fight to the ground. Overall, I think Costa can win this by staying on the outside and maintaining a higher output. Ige is a significant step up in competition, but I’m leaning toward the younger, more active fighter to get it done.
Final Pick: Melquizael Costa by Decision
Geoff Neal vs Uroš Medić
In my opinion, this feels like a somewhat random matchup for the co-main event. Is Uroš Medić really the prospect who deserves a shot at the rankings right now? Geoff Neal has been competing against some of the best welterweights in the world for years. He’s knocked out far more proven opponents than Medić, and prior to his most recent loss to Carlos Prates, he had never been finished. Neal is a sharp, technical boxer with strong striking defense and a composed presence under pressure. His straight punches are especially dangerous—tight, efficient, and thrown with real power.
On the other side, Medić is an aggressive, high-risk striker who thrives in chaos and loves to crash into the pocket. He carries a kill-or-be-killed mentality and boasts a 100% finish rate. However, one concerning trend in his UFC run is that he’s been hurt early in several of his fights before turning things around. He tends to take damage in those opening exchanges, which is a dangerous habit against a composed and powerful counter striker like Neal. While Medić is coming off two impressive knockout wins, this represents a significant step up in competition. Ultimately, I think Neal’s strong defense, experience, and durability will be the difference. His patience should allow him to weather the early pressure and capitalize on Medić’s aggression, eventually landing a fight finishing counter.
Final Pick: Geoff Neal by KO/TKO
Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez
Finally, we arrive at the main event, where surging contender Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez looks to extend his streak against former champion Sean Strickland in a compelling striker-versus-grappler matchup. I think Strickland is being severely underrated here, especially in the betting odds. I’ve spent more time looking at film for this fight than any other this year.
Despite being a controversial figure outside the cage, Strickland is a former champion with one of the strongest résumés in the division, including wins over Israel Adesanya and Nassourdine Imavov. Stylistically, he may be the best defensive boxer at middleweight, if not in the entire UFC. His Philly shell style allows him to stay composed and defensively responsible while throwing a steady jab and stabbing teep kicks to the body. He reads shots exceptionally well, rarely gets hurt, and maintains consistent output across five rounds thanks to his excellent cardio. While his strikes may not always be explosive, they accumulate damage over time. His takedown defense is strong, he’s difficult to hold down, and he’s shown an impressive ability to work back to his feet. He even has underrated offensive wrestling, though he likely won’t use to it in this matchup.
Hernandez’s path to victory is clear: relentless pressure, chain wrestling, and suffocating top control. His cardio is elite, and he weaponizes it by constantly pursuing takedowns and grinding opponents down with ground-and-pound. We’ve seen him break fighters like Roman Dolidze and Michel Pereira, forcing them into exhausting fights where they simply can’t keep up. He doesn’t abandon the takedown—he’ll continue shooting and re-shooting, trusting his pace to eventually overwhelm his opponent. That said, his striking remains somewhat one-dimensional, relying heavily on boxing without much variety in his kicking game. He’s also been vulnerable to body shots, getting hurt in multiple fights, which is a dangerous flaw against someone with Strickland’s teep.
Ultimately, while Hernandez thrives on breaking opponents with pace and grappling, I don’t see him being able to consistently hold Strickland down or out-cardio him the way he has others. Strickland’s advantage on the feet feels more pronounced than Hernandez’s advantage on the ground, and we haven’t seen Strickland get consistently out-wrestled since his fight with Kamaru Usman years ago. I expect Hernandez to have moments and definitely secure takedowns, but I don’t think he’ll be able to keep Strickland grounded long enough to break him. Over five rounds, I see Strickland defending well, working back to his feet when needed, and steadily out-damaging Hernandez—especially with that teep to the body. In the end, I think Strickland gives Hernandez a taste of his own medicine by matching his cardio and work rate but doing the damage on the feet instead.
Final Pick: Sean Strickland by Decision
