The UFC continues this weekend with a Fight Night event in Mexico City. While this is not the most stacked card, fights are fights, and that always leaves room for surprises. Last week was a bit of a mixed bag as I went 8–6 overall on predictions, but we were still able to cash in on Sean Strickland as a sizeable underdog in the main event. The odds on Strickland were surprising given the comparison between the two fighters’ résumés, but we’ll take the value where we can find it. This week, I’m looking to tighten things up and deliver a stronger overall performance. As always, I’ll be breaking down the entire card from top to bottom, with my official picks clearly marked in bold after each analysis—so let’s get right into it.
Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz
The first matchup features two fighters coming off the latest season of DWCS, as Damian Pinas takes on Wes Schultz. Pinas made a statement on the Contender Series with a big knockout to earn his UFC contract, showcasing legitimate one-punch power and dangerous striking that can end a fight instantly. The main question surrounding him is his grappling, as he hasn’t been tested in that area yet. On the other side, Schultz secured his contract with a creative submission on his second appearance on the show and brings a strong grappling base backed by his wrestling background. While Schultz will likely do everything he can to drag this fight to the ground, I think Pinas can defend the takedowns well enough to keep it standing and eventually find the knockout, as his power could be the difference-maker in this matchup.
Final Pick: Damian Pinas by KO/TKO
Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall
Erik Silva returns to the Octagon after a two-year layoff to face Francis Marshall, but there are plenty of concerns surrounding his comeback. At 38 years old and 0–2 in the UFC, Silva has shown himself to be a capable grappler, yet he offers very little threat on the feet. Marshall, on the other hand, looks like a solid prospect who recently had a highly competitive fight with Mairon Santos, a fighter who has found notable success as of late. Marshall should have a clear striking advantage in this matchup and has shown enough defensive grappling to avoid being neutralized on the ground. Given Silva’s age, layoff, and limited skill set, this should be a relatively straightforward win—and potentially a finish—for Marshall.
Final Pick: Francis Marshall by KO/TKO
Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaite
This is a late addition to the card, as the UFC signs undefeated Mexican flyweight Regina Tarin on just a few days’ notice to face Ernesta Kareckaite. Tarin is extremely young and from Mexico City, meaning she’s accustomed to training at altitude which is an advantage that could prove valuable given the short turnaround. Looking at her past performances, she appears to be a solid, well-rounded prospect who likes to push the pace and inflict damage wherever the fight takes place. Kareckaite is the more experienced fighter and likely the sharper, more technical striker with consistent output, but many of her fights tend to be competitive and closely scored. With the hometown crowd behind her, strong cardio from training at elevation, and the urgency that comes with a short-notice opportunity, I believe Tarin could be the hungrier fighter and do enough to edge out a decision.
Final Pick: Regina Tarin by Decision
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Javier Reyes
Javier Reyes enters this matchup off an impressive knockout on the Contender Series and brings solid activity and experience for a 32-year-old. While his striking isn’t the most technical, he clearly carries real power and isn’t afraid to load up on his shots. The concern is that he often telegraphs his punches and leaves himself exposed defensively, which could be dangerous against a seasoned opponent. He’ll be facing longtime UFC veteran Douglas Silva de Andrade, who hasn’t been very active recently and is getting up there in age, but remains in excellent physical condition and has consistently shown durability. Silva de Andrade is a well-rounded fighter with a capable ground game and respectable power on the feet, making him a tough out. There are still several unanswered questions about Reyes, particularly regarding his shot selection and ability to set up his offense effectively. If he can’t land something big early, he may struggle over the course of the fight, which is why I lean toward the veteran Silva de Andrade to get the job done.
Final Pick: Douglas Silva de Andrade by Decision
Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho
Kris Moutinho returns to action this weekend in what could be his final UFC appearance if he’s unable to secure a win. He faces Cristian Quiñonez, who has been very inactive but remains a dangerous and explosive striker with a solid all-around skill set. Quiñonez is willing to take risks, yet he possesses the tools—both on the feet and on the ground—to capitalize on Moutinho’s defensive deficiencies. While Moutinho’s cardio and toughness are admirable, they haven’t been enough to overcome the damage he absorbs against high-level competition, and durability alone can only take you so far. There’s also the possibility that his toughness begins to fade, which makes this a difficult matchup for him. Given the striking disparity and Moutinho’s defensive lapses, Quiñonez should have a strong opportunity to find the knockout.
Final Pick: Cristian Quiñonez by KO/TKO
Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson
This is the closest-lined fight on the card according to the betting odds, which makes it interesting. Ailin Perez comes in on an impressive winning streak, largely fueled by her grappling and ability to control opponents on the ground. Meanwhile, Macy Chiasson is looking to snap a two-fight skid and will have a significant size and length advantage in this matchup, which could make Perez’s takedown entries more difficult. That said, Chiasson has shown vulnerability when trying to get back to her feet once taken down. While Perez may face early challenges closing the distance, her persistence, timing, and overall control game should allow her to make the necessary adjustments. If she can consistently secure top position, her grappling advantage could ultimately be the deciding factor.
Final Pick: Ailin Perez by Decision
Ryan Gandra vs Jose Deniel Medina
This matchup feels similar to the earlier Kris Moutinho situation, as Jose Medina likely needs a win to keep his spot on the roster. Much like Moutinho, Medina relies heavily on toughness and durability rather than a well-rounded skill set. He was dominated in his Contender Series appearance but earned a contract largely due to the heart and resilience he displayed. While his grit is impressive, it’s difficult to see it translating into consistent success at the UFC level. He faces Ryan Gandra, an extremely aggressive and wild striker who throws big, looping shots, constantly looking for a knockout. This style does carry risk—if Gandra expends too much energy trying to put Medina away and can’t get him out of there, his cardio could become an issue late. Still, Gandra looked dangerous and explosive on the Contender Series, and it’s hard to confidently side with Medina based on durability alone. I have to lean toward Gandra getting the job done, likely by finish.
Final Pick: Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO
Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco
I’m extremely excited for this matchup because Santiago Luna looks like a legit prospect. In his debut, he was able to weather early adversity before knocking out Quang Le, proving he can stay composed even when hurt. That said, Luna’s strongest skill set comes from his grappling background, which is where I believe he does his best work. On the feet, he’s aggressive and dangerous but also hittable, so defensive awareness will be key against a willing striker. His opponent, Angel Pacheco, is another fighter who earned a UFC contract despite losing on the Contender Series. Pacheco brings decent striking and embraces firefights, showing both power and durability. Still, I view Luna as the more well-rounded and higher-upside prospect in the bantamweight division. If he leans into his grappling and avoids an unnecessary brawl, I think he can control this fight on the ground and secure the win.
Final Pick: Santiago Luna by Submission
Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas
Imanol Rodriguez finally makes his UFC debut, and there’s been plenty of buzz surrounding him. He appeared on the latest season of TUF and was widely viewed as one of Daniel Cormier’s standout prospects. Although he lost a very close fight to Joseph Morales, who went on to win the show, Rodriguez later earned another opportunity on the Contender Series and secured his UFC contract. He brings crisp boxing, sharp timing, and an impressive ability to read opponents, along with the option to mix in grappling when needed, making him a well-rounded and intelligent fighter overall. He now faces Kevin Borjas, a tough and experienced competitor who always comes ready to push the pace and mix his attacks effectively. Borjas should test Rodriguez and force him into uncomfortable moments, but I ultimately believe Rodriguez is the more polished fighter and will be able to land the cleaner, more damaging shots to prove he belongs at this level.
Final Pick: Imanol Rodriguez by Decision
Édgar Cháirez vs Felipe Bunes
We’ve got another flyweight matchup featuring two fighters who have faced solid competition in the division. Édgar Cháirez brings a clear edge in both grappling and striking. He has dangerous chokes along with sharper and more technical boxing than Felipe Bunes. Cháirez throws with real power and does a great job targeting the body, which could be especially important since Bunes has shown he can slow down as fights progress. Bunes is the more reactive fighter, often throwing recklessly, which could leave openings for Cháirez to counter with heavier, more punishing shots. If Cháirez invests in the body early and forces Bunes to work at a high pace, he could break him down, hurt him on the feet, and eventually capitalize by taking the fight to the ground and securing a submission.
Final Pick: Édgar Cháirez by Submisson
Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green
The UFC is giving Daniel Zellhuber a good opportunity to bounce back as he takes on the legend Bobby Green. Zellhuber has dropped two straight, including a significant upset loss his last time out where he was clearly outclassed by Michael Johnson. At his best, Zellhuber uses his length effectively, managing distance with sharp kicks and well-placed shots, even if he isn’t known for overwhelming power. If necessary, he could mix in some grappling, but this fight will likely play out mostly on the feet. With Green, we know exactly what to expect—mostly boxing, hands low, constant head movement, and a counter-heavy approach. However, his durability has shown signs of decline in recent fights. Given Zellhuber’s size, range, and kicking game, he should be able to control the distance, limit Green’s opportunities, and put together a strong performance to secure a much-needed win, potentially even earning his first UFC knockout.
Final Pick: Daniel Zellhuber by KO/TKO
Marlon Vera vs David Martinez
This is probably the fight I’m most excited about on the card. I’ve been a fan of Chito Vera for a while, and although he’s dropped three straight and looked underwhelming in recent performances, this feels like a slight step down in competition and a real opportunity to bounce back. Vera has the clear edge in experience and remains one of the most durable fighters in the division, with proven five-round cardio and punishing power—especially with his knees and combination striking when he decides to actually open up. He could also look to mix in his grappling against an opponent who hasn’t consistently been tested there. The biggest issue for Chito has been urgency; at times, he waits for a single big moment rather than building steady volume. If he wants to win this fight, he can’t afford to give away early rounds.
David Martinez, meanwhile, is stepping up in competition but carries some momentum, coming off a short-notice win over Rob Font. He’s an explosive, dynamic striker with a noticeable speed advantage, sharp footwork, and the confidence to throw with knockout intent. Martinez will likely look to pressure Vera and win the minutes with activity and volume. However, that aggression can lead to overextension and openings, which is dangerous against a seasoned counter striker like Vera. If Chito stays composed, relies on his durability and cardio, and times Martinez’s bigger movements, he should find opportunities to land damaging counters and shift the momentum. It’s a risky pick given his recent skid, but I’m trusting Vera’s experience and toughness to carry him back into the win column.
Final Pick: Marlon Vera by Decision
Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh
Lone’er Kavanagh steps in on short notice to take on the pride of Mexico, Brandon Moreno, in what should be a fun main event. Fighting in Mexico City adds another layer to this matchup, as elevation and crowd energy will likely play major roles—especially in a potential five-round fight. For Kavanagh, this is a massive opportunity. For Moreno, it’s a chance to defend home turf and remind everyone why he has spent so much time at the top of the flyweight division.
Moreno is a former champion who has consistently competed against the best in the world. He’s durable, quick on the feet, and typically puts together strong volume while constantly moving forward. If needed, he can mix in his wrestling to keep opponents guessing. Most importantly, Moreno has proven cardio across multiple five-round wars, and that experience could be crucial here. While there are fair questions about whether he’s beginning to lose a step in terms of speed and pace as he gets older, his toughness, composure, and ability to fight through adversity remain major assets.
Kavanagh enters this bout after suffering his first UFC loss, a knockout defeat to Charles Johnson. Interestingly, Johnson has derailed rising prospects before—most notably the current flyweight champion Joshua Van, who rebounded to go on a strong run—so that setback doesn’t necessarily define Kavanagh. Technically, he’s a sharp and fast striker with impressive offensive speed and accuracy. He isn’t known for his wrestling, but he has shown the ability to use it to offset his opponents pressure. The biggest concern is cardio. In his last fight, he appeared to slow down, dropped his hands, and ultimately paid the price. If his gas tank fades again—especially at elevation and on short notice—it could take away from his speed advantage he relies on so heavily.
Ultimately, I have to side with Moreno. His experience in five-round fights, proven durability, and familiarity with high-altitude conditions give him a clear edge in the matchup. Moreno’s pressure and steady pace could test Kavanagh’s conditioning and force him into uncomfortable positions as the fight goes on. While there are legitimate questions about whether Moreno is still in his prime, there are even more uncertainties surrounding Kavanagh after his last performance. In a fight that may come down to who can maintain their pace the longest, Moreno’s track record makes him the safer pick.
Final Pick: Brandon Moreno by Decision
