The UFC heads back to an arena this week after a quick stop at the Apex, bringing us a fun Fight Night in London with exciting matchups and plenty of talent from across the region. The main event is extremely interesting, featuring two undefeated featherweights squaring off to determine who could be next in line for a title shot. Fights like this don’t come around often—two unbeaten fighters meeting this high in the rankings—so it’s hard not to be excited about it. Last week’s predictions ended up a solid 9–5, and I was particularly happy to get the Ion Cutelaba pick right, while Kevin Vallejos also shocked me with how quickly he knocked out Josh Emmett. With yet another card ahead, I’m excited to dive into this week’s matchups and hopefully put together a clean sweep of predictions. Let’s jump straight into the breakdowns, starting with the opening fight of the night and working our way to the main event, with my final picks marked in bold after each analysis.
Melissa Mullins vs Luana Carolina
The opening fight of the night is always a rough one to break down, and this matchup isn’t exactly the highest level on the card, but I will give my take regardless. Melissa Mullins is coming off a loss to Darya Zheleznyakova—a fighter she had previously beaten—which isn’t the most encouraging sign. She does her best work on the ground, but if she struggles to secure takedowns, it’s hard to see her having any success. On the other side, Luana Carolina should have a clear edge on the feet with her movement, clean striking, and especially her kicking game. She does a good job managing distance and staying defensively responsible, and while her takedown defense isn’t fantastic, it’s held up against stronger grapplers in the past. That gives me confidence she can keep this fight standing, control the range, and gradually pick Mullins apart to earn the win.
Final Pick: Luana Carolina by Decision
Shanelle Dyer vs Ravena Oliveira
Another WMMA matchup here as Shanelle Dyer takes on Ravena Oliveira. Dyer enters this fight off a loss on the Contender Series, and while I’m not always a fan of fighters getting contracts off losses, she did make the most of her opportunity in a pretty entertaining fight. That fight showed her toughness and durability, along with her technical striking and solid speed on the feet. In this matchup, she appears to have a clear advantage in the striking department against Oliveira, who is coming in on a two-fight losing streak. Oliveira can be scrappy and willing to engage, but she doesn’t bring the same level of skills or speed on the feet. With this fight likely playing out largely in striking exchanges, I have to side with the more technical and sharper striker in Dyer.
Final Pick: Shanelle Dyer by Decision
Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
This fight feels like a bit of a toss-up. I’m a fan of Shem Rock—he’s entertaining and brings a fun personality—but his UFC debut last year was a tough one, as he was largely controlled by a very solid opponent in Nurullo Aliev. Rock’s striking can look a bit awkward, and he’s not the most technical fighter on the feet, but he does have some dangerous tools, especially with his kicks. Even if the striking isn’t always clean, he has enough to stay competitive. Where he really shines, though, is his jiu-jitsu. If this fight hits the mat or even involves scrambles, Rock has the skill to create real problems.
He’ll be taking on Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady, who hasn’t been very active but is a well-rounded fighter with solid wrestling and decent boxing. I expect him to have the cleaner, more effective hands in this matchup and to do the better work on the feet overall. That said, I think Rock can keep things competitive and eventually drag this fight into grappling exchanges where he’s most dangerous. With his high-level jiu-jitsu, I like Rock to find a submission and pull off the win here.
Final Pick: Shem Rock by Submission
Louie Sutherland vs Brando Peričić
We move into the heavyweight division here with two relatively new UFC fighters. Louie Sutherland made his debut and was quickly caught in a heel hook by Valter Walker, which isn’t the worst look considering how dangerous Walker has been with that submission. Sutherland brings power on the feet, but his striking can get wild and a bit reckless. He has shown the ability to mix in takedowns and some wrestling, but more often than not he seems to prefer a brawl, which could leave openings against a more composed striker.
On the other side, Brando Peričić looks like a heavyweight with a lot of upside. Training out of City Kickboxing, he moves well for his size and carries serious power, particularly in his right hand. While he’s still relatively inexperienced at 5–1, he’s shown clear danger on the feet. His biggest question mark is likely his ground game, as his lone loss came by submission. That said, if Sutherland can’t consistently wrestle or land something big early, he could struggle here. With Sutherland’s aggressive and sometimes reckless style, I think it creates the kind of openings Peričić can capitalize on to land a big shot.
Final Pick: Brando Peričić by KO/TKO
Mantas Kondratavičius vs Antonio Trocoli
I have to ask—why is Antonio Trocoli still in the UFC? He’s taking on another dangerous prospect here in Matas Kondratavičius, and I’ll be straightforward: I think Kondratavičius finishes him one way or another. He’s explosive, carries big power, and also has a legit submission game to fall back on. Trocoli is supposed to be a jiu-jitsu black belt, but getting submitted by standing guillotines in back-to-back fights doesn’t show that at all. Outside of his size, it’s hard to see where this guy has success. I expect Kondratavičius to land something big early, drop Trocoli, and close the show with ground and pound or even a quick submission—either way, this feels like a clear finish.
Final Pick: Mantas Kondratavičius by KO/TKO
Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco
This is another matchup that, frankly, doesn’t look very competitive at all. Mario Pinto is a legit heavyweight prospect, and this feels like a clear step down in competition for him. Felipe Franco hasn’t faced strong opposition, and getting submitted by Freddy Vidal on the Contender Series—especially the way he seemed to just give up in that fight—is a tough look. Even though Franco has picked up a couple of wins outside the UFC since then, this is a massive jump in difficulty against a proven and dangerous fighter like Pinto. It’s hard to see this playing out any other way than Pinto finding a first-round knockout and making it look relatively easy.
Final Pick: Mario Pinto by KO/TKO
Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita
Now we get to an actually competitive matchup between Nathaniel Wood and Losene Keita, who makes his UFC debut with some hype behind him. Wood surprised me in his last outing against Jose Miguel Delgado—a fight I personally thought Delgado edged—but regardless, Wood looked better than expected. His speed at this weight class is a real weapon and has given plenty of fighters issues, and he’s clearly the more technical and proven fighter here with wins over solid competition.
Keita, meanwhile, gets a second shot at his UFC debut after previously missing weight for a scheduled fight with Patricio Pitbull. He’s a massive featherweight and brings a style similar to someone like Michael Morales—explosive, aggressive, and throwing with serious power without much hesitation. He’s an exciting prospect, but his defense is a concern, and there are questions about how his chin will hold up after tough weight cuts. This is a tough fight to call since we don’t fully know how Keita’s style will translate at this level. If it goes into the later rounds, Wood’s technical striking and well-rounded game could take over, but I’m going to take the gamble on Keita, trusting that his power and aggression will lead to the more impactful strikes.
Final Pick: Losene Keita by KO/TKO
Mason Jones vs Axel Sola
Another competitive matchup here between Mason Jones and Axel Sola. Jones is in his second stint with the UFC and has looked solid since returning, putting together a couple of strong wins. He’s a well-rounded fighter who brings constant pressure, mixing in wrestling with a high-paced striking attack. The main concern with Jones has been his fight IQ at times—he can be a bit reckless and absorb unnecessary damage—but he’s incredibly durable and thrives in gritty, close-range exchanges where he can wear opponents down.
On the other side, Axel Sola returns after an impressive debut where he proved a lot of people wrong. He’s a southpaw striker who does his best work at range, using sharp body kicks and clean, technical striking to control distance. His ground game is also solid, but he’s most effective when he can dictate the pace on the feet and pick his shots. The key to this fight will be whether Sola can maintain that range, because if Jones is able to close the distance, initiate grappling exchanges, and turn it into a physical fight, it likely swings in his favor. I expect Jones to find his way inside, lean on his wrestling, and do the more impactful work to secure the win.
Final Pick: Mason Jones by Decision
Kurtis Campbell vs Danny Silva
Kicking off the main card is a really fun matchup. “The Pink Panther” Kurtis Campbell comes in off an impressive Contender Series performance and now faces a big test in Danny Silva. Campbell is a young, undefeated prospect who looks like a strong addition to the featherweight division. He’s especially dangerous on the ground, where he can hunt for submissions or dish out heavy ground and pound, and his high-pressure wrestling combined with solid cardio makes him a constant threat. While his striking may not be his biggest strength, he’s shown enough to stay competitive on the feet and set up his grappling.
On the other side, Danny Silva is a very tough and experienced opponent who should not be overlooked. He held his own in a solid showing against Kevin Vallejos, which speaks to his durability and skill level. Silva brings good boxing and does a nice job mixing things up on the feet, but many of his fights tend to be competitive and closely contested. One of the biggest unknowns here is his ground game, as we haven’t really seen him tested there—and that’s exactly where Campbell is likely to push this fight. Overall, Silva should provide a strong test, but I like Campbell’s upside and his ability to impose his grappling to come through and get the win.
Final Pick: Kurtis Campbell by Decision
Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan
This is one of the bigger matchups on the card. Roman Dolidze is coming off a rough performance against Anthony Hernandez, where he was completely overwhelmed and broken down. While Dolidze has a solid jiu-jitsu base, he’s starting to look a step slower at this stage of his career. He’s had trouble getting fights to his preferred positions lately, and his gas tank has shown some concerns. If this fight mostly plays out on the feet, it’s hard not to see him being a step behind.
On the other side, Christian Leroy Duncan is one of the more dynamic and flashy fighters in the division. His explosiveness and unpredictability make him dangerous every time out, and this feels like a great opportunity for him to push toward the rankings. Stylistically, this matchup favors him, especially with Dolidze not looking like he’s in peak form. As long as Duncan can keep the fight standing—which seems likely given his improving takedown defense and clear speed advantage—he should be able to put together a strong performance and control the fight with his striking.
Final Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan by Decision
Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane
This feels like another mismatch on the card. Iwo Barniewski is coming off a wild debut where he survived one of the craziest rounds you’ll see, showing impressive recovery after being dropped and eating big shots. He’s clearly dangerous, comfortable in the pocket, and willing to throw with power, and overall looks like the more well-rounded and skilled fighter in this matchup. On the other side, Austen Lane hasn’t shown he’s UFC caliber, getting finished multiple times at heavyweight and now dropping down a weight class, which feels like a risky move against a dangerous prospect. While Lane may have a size advantage, it’s hard to see that being enough—this looks set up for Barniewski to find a brutal finish.
Final Pick: Iwo Baraniewski by KO/TKO
Michael Page vs Sam Patterson
This is a pretty strange matchup given Michael Venom Page’s success in the UFC so far. MVP was sitting in the top 10 at middleweight, and now he’s taking on an unranked welterweight, which makes this fight a bit puzzling. That said, Page remains one of the most unique and difficult fighters to prepare for. His hands-low, bounce-heavy style, combined with his speed and ability to attack from unorthodox angles, makes him a nightmare matchup for most opponents. The one clear weakness in his game is his ground game—if someone can consistently take him down and control him, there’s a path to victory.
Sam Patterson, on the other hand, is better than people give him credit for and could be a bit underrated. He’s a well-rounded fighter with a solid striking game, good use of his length, and a dangerous submission arsenal. He’s shown finishing ability, but it’s come against a lower level of competition, and this is a massive step up. While Patterson has the tools to make some noise in the division long term, this feels like a tough stylistic matchup. It’s incredibly difficult to strike with MVP without getting picked apart, and I don’t think Patterson has the wrestling to consistently exploit Page’s biggest weakness. Expect MVP to control the fight at range and put on another signature, highlight-style performance.
Final Pick: Michael Page by Decision
Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell
This should be a really entertaining striking matchup. Luke Riley has been one of my favorite prospects outside the UFC for a while, and he delivered in his debut. After dealing with some early adversity and getting taken down, he bounced back in a big way with a nasty knockout in the second round. Riley carries serious power—if he lands clean, he can shut anyone’s lights out. His grappling is still a question mark, but in this matchup, it doesn’t seem like something he’ll have to worry about too much.
Michael Aswell is a solid striker in his own right, though he brings a different style. He’s more of a volume boxer with good cardio, capable of pushing a steady pace and making fights competitive. He’s also shown durability, so he may be able to absorb some early shots. That said, Riley’s power feels like the difference-maker here. If he finds his timing, it’s hard to see Aswell holding up for long. I expect Riley to land another big shot and get the knockout, continuing to build momentum and take another step toward becoming a star.
Final Pick: Luke Riley by KO/TKO
Mosvar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy
Finally, we get to the main event—a rare and high-stakes matchup between two undefeated featherweights. Fights like this simply don’t come around often, especially this high up in the rankings, which makes it even more intriguing. With both fighters looking to take a major step toward title contention, there’s a lot on the line, and it should be a high level five-round battle.
Movsar Evloev is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division, even if he doesn’t always get the credit for it. While his grappling and wrestling are clearly his biggest strengths, his striking is quietly effective and continues to improve. He does a great job blending his striking into his takedown game, making him a constant threat in all areas. That said, Evloev has had some very close fights, including a razor-thin matchup with Arnold Allen that could have gone either way. He also hasn’t been the most active fighter and is coming off a layoff since his last bout with Aljamain Sterling, which adds a bit of uncertainty.
On the other side, Lerone Murphy gets a massive opportunity to make a statement in front of his home crowd in London. He’s coming off a highlight-reel spinning elbow knockout over Aaron Pico, showcasing his precision and ability to capitalize in big moments. Murphy is a clean, calculated striker who works well behind his jab and kicks, often controlling the pace of the fight. While he has shown vulnerability against high-pressure opponents like Dan Ige and in moments against Pico, he’s also proven he can fight through adversity and adjust mid-fight. This will be a clear step up in competition, and his takedown defense will be tested more than ever against a grappler like Evloev.
Overall, this feels like a competitive fight that has a strong chance of going the distance. Evloev will likely find some success with his wrestling, but I don’t expect him to dominate Murphy with control time. On the feet, Murphy should have the edge in terms of damage and cleaner moments, which has become increasingly important in judging. With his composure, fight IQ, and ability to make adjustments, I trust Murphy to rise to the occasion and edge out a close decision victory in front of his home crowd.
Final Pick: Lerone Murphy by Decision
