Last week broke me. UFC 327 was an incredibly depressing night — the fights delivered, but the main event outcome will haunt me forever. With Pereira out of the division, this was supposed to be Jiri’s moment to reclaim that belt, and watching it slip away had me seriously questioning whether I’d ever tune into another card again. That feeling only got worse when I looked ahead to this week’s event, which I won’t sugarcoat — it’s a bad card, and I genuinely feel for the Canadian fans who deserve better. Every time the UFC heads to Canada, it feels like a copy paste of the last time they were there. I went 5-7 on my picks at UFC 327, so take everything I say this week with a grain of salt, but I’ll do my best to give you accurate, honest breakdowns. All of my picks will be marked in bold after each breakdown.
Jamie Siraj vs John Yannis
Kicking off the card with two relative unknowns, this is an interesting debut matchup to break down. Jaimie Siraj is stepping into the UFC for the first time and brings a well-rounded game — his striking is solid, he likes to mix things up on the feet, and he has a decent ground game to complement it. John Yannis, on the other hand, had a rough UFC debut against Austin Bashi, though he does show some promising qualities on the feet with his speed and movement. The glaring issue for Yannis is his defensive grappling, which has clear holes that an experienced opponent can exploit. With Siraj’s ground game and the crowd behind him fighting on home soil, I expect him to drag this fight to the mat and find the finish.
Final Pick: Jamie Siraj by Submission
John Castaneda vs Mark Vologdin
This is a fun Bantamweight matchup with some interesting contrasts. John Castaneda comes in with a notable reach advantage, though I’m not convinced he’ll gameplan around it effectively. Where he does have a real edge is experience — his fight IQ and time in the octagon could cause problems for a younger, less tested opponent. That said, Castaneda has a tendency to get too comfortable on the back foot and doesn’t handle pressure particularly well, which could be a serious liability in this fight.
That’s exactly where Mark Vologdin comes in. After his absolutely electric showing on the Contender Series, this is a debut I’ve been looking forward to. He is on the smaller side for Bantamweight, but what he lacks in size he more than makes up for in toughness and heart — the kid simply does not quit. On the feet he’s dynamic, mixes his targets well, and carries pop in his hands. Add in his ability to pressure consistently and score takedowns, and he has all the tools to make Castaneda uncomfortable from the opening bell. I expect Vologdin to work his way inside, pile up volume, and eventually break Castaneda down for the TKO finish.
Final Pick: Mark Vologdin by KO/TKO
JJ Aldrich vs Jamey-Lyn Horth
I won’t spend too much time on this one. JJ Aldrich has never really impressed me during her UFC career — she lacks explosiveness and has looked mediocre more often than not. Jamey-Lyn Horth, on the other hand, looked great in her last outing and brings some real power and physicality to the table. She may not be the most technical fighter on the roster, but her strength and momentum heading into this fight are enough to give her the edge, especially with the Canadian crowd firmly behind her.
Final Pick: Jamey-Lyn Horth by Decision
Melissa Croden vs Daria Zhelezniakova
Another fight I’m not going to dwell on too long. Melissa Croden has shown a legitimate ability to get finishes, which is always a good trait in a WMMA bout, and she brings forward pressure along with what looks like a grappling advantage in this matchup. Daria Zhelezniakova has also proven she can finish fights and is likely the more technical striker of the two, but there are noticeable holes in her grappling game that have been exposed before. I think Croden takes advantage of that, gets her takedowns, and sends another Canadian home with a win.
Final Pick: Melissa Croden by Decision
Tanner Boser vs Gokhan Saricam
Tanner Boser makes his return to the UFC having tested himself against some legitimately tough opponents, and I think that experience shows up here. He holds the striking advantage in this matchup and should have the edge in overall fight IQ as the more seasoned guy. Gokhan Saricam comes over from Bellator where he has been steadily improving, and his grappling is genuinely solid — he’ll likely find some control time against Boser on the mat. However, his striking leaves a lot to be desired, and if Boser is able to keep this fight standing, Saricam is going to have a very long night. I’m siding with Boser’s experience and striking pedigree to carry him to a winning return.
Final Pick: Tanner Boser by Decision
Julien LeBlanc vs Robert Valentin
This is about as low-stakes as a UFC fight gets. Julien LaBlanc is stepping in for his debut and frankly hasn’t looked particularly impressive outside of the promotion, which doesn’t inspire much confidence heading into this level of competition. His striking is passable, but he has struggled against subpar opposition, and that’s a tough look to bring into the UFC.
Robert Valentin has had a rough go in the UFC so far — after watching him on TUF I expected more, and that loss to Ryan Loder is not a result that holds up well in hindsight. That said, this matchup feels like a significant step down in competition for him, and there are things to work with. He’s chaotic on the feet and has some real submission skills that can cause problems for the right opponent. Despite the rocky UFC run, I think Valentin is the clearly better fighter here and gets back in the win column with a finish on the ground.
Final Pick: Robert Valentin by Submission
Dennis Buzukja vs Marcio Barbosa
This is an interesting stylistic matchup. Dennis Buzukja hasn’t had the most glamorous UFC run, but he’s far from a pushover. He has the ability to mix in grappling to disrupt his opponent’s rhythm, which could be a useful tool against someone like Barbosa, and his striking is competent enough to keep him in the fight. The key for Buzukja will be staying disciplined, using his movement, and not getting caught up in a brawl on the back foot.
Marcio Barbosa, however, looks like he could be a genuinely scary addition to the division. He comes out fast from the opening bell, makes a beeline for the fence, and unloads heavy hands with serious power — including some punishing body shots that can wear opponents down in a hurry. If Buzukja can’t neutralize that pressure early through his grappling, this could get ugly fast. I think Barbosa’s physicality and aggression are simply too much for Buzukja to handle, and he announces his UFC arrival with a knockout.
Final Pick: Marcio Barbosa by KO/TKO
Thiago Moisés vs Gauge Young
I feel like Thiago Moisés has been in the UFC forever, but his experience in the octagon is very valuable heading into this fight. He brings a dangerous Jiu-Jitsu game and some underrated weapons on the feet, particularly his calf kicks, which can quietly wear an opponent down over the course of a fight. That experience edge is real, but so are the concerns — Moisés has absorbed a lot of damage over his career and has been finished by opponents who weren’t exactly elite finishers, which raises some durability questions.
Gauge Young is where I’m leaning in this one. He brings sharper, cleaner boxing to the table and has no hesitation about standing and trading. His wrestling has also looked solid, which gives him a useful counter to Moisés’s submission game if the fight hits the mat. The calf kicks will be something he needs to manage, but if Young can stay disciplined with his defense and stick to his boxing, I think he does enough to earn the decision
Final Pick: Gauge Young by Decision
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Karine Silva
Jasmine Jasudavicius is coming off a brutal knockout loss, but I’m not ready to count her out here. Her grappling and physicality are genuinely elite, and I think those tools translate well against an opponent like Karine Silva, who simply isn’t operating at the level of striker that someone like Manon Fiorot is. Silva hasn’t looked particularly impressive in her UFC run, and Jasudavicius should be able to impose her will on the mat early and often. I expect her to get her grappling going and cruise to a relatively comfortable win.
Final Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision
Mandel Nallo vs Jai Herbert
Mandel Nallo is one of the more exciting prospects to keep an eye on heading into this fight. His Contender Series finish was absolutely brutal, and it showcased everything that makes him dangerous — powerful, explosive leg kicks, elite athleticism, and an aggressive style that puts constant pressure on his opponents. He is the kind of fighter who can make even experienced guys look uncomfortable in a hurry.
Jai Herbert is no slouch though, and is genuinely one of the cleaner technical strikers at Lightweight. His footwork and range management are polished, and he even looked sharp against a young Ilia Topuria, which is no small feat. The problem with Herbert is that for all his technical ability, he consistently struggles to pull the trigger and separate himself from opponents when it matters most. I think Nallo’s relentless pressure and leg kick volume will neutralize Herbert’s movement and chip away at his ability to operate from range. Yes, this is a step up in competition for Nallo, but I think he is more than ready for it and runs through Herbert with a finish.
Final Pick: Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO
Kyler Phillips vs Charles Jourdain
The co-main event is a solid matchup between two guys knocking on the door of the Bantamweight rankings. Kyler Phillips is a dynamic and unpredictable fighter — he throws a lot of wild spinning attacks but can dial it back and fight technically when needed. His biggest strength is his explosiveness in the early rounds, where his unpredictability makes him genuinely difficult to read. The concern, however, is that he tends to slow down as fights progress, and once his movement drops off he becomes considerably easier to hit and target.
That’s exactly the kind of fighter Charles Jourdain is built to beat. After dropping down a weight class he has looked like an absolute force, and he is one of the most entertaining fighters on the roster to watch for good reason. He is well-rounded in every sense — explosive and creative on the feet, and armed with some of the most dangerous Jiu-Jitsu in the division, headlined by a guillotine that has to be respected at all times. I think Jourdain weathers whatever Phillips brings in the first round, takes over as the fight progresses and Phillips slows down, and eventually gets his hands on him for the submission finish.
Final Pick: Charles Jourdain by Submission
Gilbert Burns vs Mike Malott
Finally, we arrive at the main event, which features the only ranked men’s fighter on the entire card in Gilbert Burns. Burns is clearly in the twilight of his career — he’s riding a four-fight losing streak and simply doesn’t look like the same fighter he once was. His gas tank has become a real liability, and at this stage of his career that’s not something that tends to get better. If there is a path to victory for Burns, it likely runs through an early finish before his conditioning becomes a factor.
Mike Malott is the fighter the UFC has chosen to be the face of Canadian MMA, and while he draws some criticism from hardcore fans, I think the improvement he has shown is genuine and worth acknowledging. He was exposed for cardio issues against Neil Magny, but he appears to have made real strides in managing his pace and output since then. On the feet he is technical and quick, and his ability to switch stances effectively adds a layer of unpredictability to his game. He also brings solid wrestling and has flashed some legitimate submission skills, making him a well-rounded threat across all areas.
At the end of the day, I think Burns is simply past the point where he can impose his will on a younger, fresher fighter. A prime Burns would likely give Malott serious problems, but that version of Burns isn’t walking into the octagon anymore. Malott should be the quicker, sharper fighter from start to finish — he can get his kicks going, stay disciplined on the feet, and avoid any dangerous scrambles on the ground. As the fight progresses and Burns fades, I think Malott takes over and gets him out of there.
Final Pick: Mike Malott by KO/TKO
