Back again with another Apex card — not the most stacked lineup in the world, but there’s probably more name value here than last week. Speaking of which, UFC Winnipeg turned out to be a pretty fun event. Plenty of entertaining moments, a couple of questionable decisions, and I went 7-5 on picks, which was a solid bounce back from UFC 327. Feeling good heading into this one and ready to break down the whole card from the first prelim all the way to the main event. As always, my final pick will be clearly marked in bold at the end of each breakdown — let’s get into it.
Talita Alencar vs Julia Polastri
I’m sure everyone has been on the edge of their seat waiting for this one, so I’ll keep it short. Alencar isn’t particularly sharp on the feet, especially when it comes to her striking defense, and while her Jiu-Jitsu is high level, her straight up wrestling is nothing special. She’s a fairly one-dimensional fighter who relies heavily on getting the takedown. If Polastri can keep it standing, I think she wins this comfortably — she has the striking to give Alencar trouble on the feet and should look like the cleaner fighter to the judges.
Final Pick: Julia Polastri by Decision
Max Griffin vs Victor Valenzuela
Next up is an interesting veteran vs newcomer matchup. Max Griffin has been in the UFC for a long time, tested against solid competition, and brings a level of technical experience that Victor Valenzuela simply doesn’t have yet. The knock on Griffin is that he tends to leave fights closer than they need to be and doesn’t always separate himself, but the fact that he’s still hanging around at 40 against quality opponents says a lot. Valenzuela is dangerous and aggressive, but losing on the Contender Series is an immediate red flag for me. I think Griffin’s experience, movement, and fight IQ will be the difference here — Valenzuela leaves openings, and Griffin is exactly the type of crafty veteran who knows how to exploit them.
Final Pick: Max Griffin by KO/TKO
Francis Marshall vs Lucas Brennan
Francis Marshall returns as a big favorite against Lucas Brennan, who makes his UFC debut here. Marshall is well-rounded with crisp boxing and solid wrestling, and already has good experience under his belt in the promotion. Brennan appears to have a strong Jiu-Jitsu game, but his striking is a weakness and he’ll likely need to get his grappling going to have any shot in this one. I think Marshall defends the takedowns comfortably, exploits the striking advantage, and gets this done by knockout.
Final Pick: Francis Marshall by KO/TKO
Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden
Moving onto the flyweights, this one could be pretty one-sided. Jafel Filho is a fun prospect with nasty submission skills and underrated striking, so I don’t think Cody Durden has a clear advantage anywhere. Durden on the other hand is on a four-fight losing streak and just hasn’t looked good lately — his fight IQ has been questionable, particularly with some of his takedown attempts, and any mistakes in that department against Filho will likely end the fight quickly. Respect to Durden for stepping up, but this could realistically be his last UFC appearance. He’s past his best and drawing a dangerous, well-rounded prospect is about as tough as it gets right now.
Final Pick: Jafel Filho by Submission
Mayra Bueno Silva vs Michelle Montague
Another WMMA matchup to break down here. Mayra Bueno Silva has had a rough recent run following her loss to Raquel Pennington, and while she has some weapons on the feet and a solid grappling game on paper, we just haven’t seen any of it show up in her recent performances. Michelle Montague on the other hand is a dangerous grappler with a serious submission game, particularly her rear naked choke, and comes in as the younger, hungrier fighter. Bueno Silva is hard to trust at this point, and I don’t think her striking poses enough of a threat to keep Montague off her for long. Montague feels like the clear pick here.
Final Pick: Michelle Montague by Decision
Jackson McVey vs Sedriques Dumas
Not the highest level fight on the card, but one I’m genuinely looking forward to. Jackson McVey hasn’t had the best start in the UFC, but he’s shown some promising things, particularly in the clinch where his knees and elbows look sharp and his grappling is strong. He also has a solid front kick on the feet. Seqriques Dumas on the other hand is an unreliable fighter who doesn’t handle adversity well, and I think that’s going to be a real problem here. I expect McVey to get ahold of him early, work the clinch, break him down with knees to the body, and eventually drag him to the ground for the finish.
Final Pick: Jackson McVey by Submission
Rodolfo Viera vs Eric McConico
This one is much closer than the odds suggest. Rodolfo Vieira is obviously coming off that brutal head kick knockout loss to Bo Nickal last year, and while his Jiu-Jitsu background is elite, his overall game is fairly one-dimensional. On the feet he is hittable and not particularly dangerous, outside of a decent one-two.
Eric McConico has shown some promising moments in his early UFC fights, including solid takedown defense against the likes of Cody Brundage and Baisangur Susurkaev. If he can keep this fight standing, I think he has real success touching Rodolfo Vieira up on the feet. He is the more technical and dynamic striker, and I think this fight is a lot more competitive than the betting market is giving him credit for.
Final Pick: Eric McConico by Decision
Marcus Buchecha vs Ryan Spann
Moving onto the heavyweights, this one could get ugly if neither guy gets an early stoppage. Marcus Buchecha comes from an elite Jiu-Jitsu background that he leans on heavily in MMA, but he hasn’t looked particularly impressive in the UFC so far. Outside of his submission game, which hasn’t had much success at this level, he doesn’t offer a whole lot of threat.
Ryan Spann on the other hand, brings significantly more MMA experience at the UFC level and has competed at lower weight classes. He has a fantastic guillotine that gives him a real weapon to counter Buchecha’s grappling, but I think the big separator here is his striking. Spann’s boxing technique and power are on a completely different level, and I think he uses that advantage to beat Marcus Buchecha up on the feet and find the TKO finish.
Final Pick: Ryan Spann by KO/TKO
Montel Jackson vs Raoni Barcelos
This is a matchup I’m genuinely excited about. Montel Jackson is a patient striker who likes to wait for his spots and has the ability to snipe opponents with his left hand, but the problem is he doesn’t always open up enough to consistently outwork his opponents. If he can’t find that shot and get something going early, I don’t see a clear path for him to outscore Barcelos over three rounds.
Raoni Barcelos is finally getting his shot at the rankings and honestly, I’ve overlooked him too many times and he has constantly proven me wrong. He brings a pressure-heavy grappling game, solid fundamental striking, great head movement, and throws a ton of volume. We’ve seen Jackson get outwrestled before, and I think Barcelos has a significant grappling advantage here on top of being the busier, more well-rounded fighter on the feet. He’s made a lot of improvements recently and I think this ends up being a fairly comfortable decision win for him.
Final Pick: Raoni Barcelos by Decision
Davey Grant vs Adrian Luna Martinetti
Another solid veteran vs. newcomer matchup here. Davey Grant is getting up there in age but he still looks really good, and despite the rough outing against Jourdain, I think this is a perfect bounce-back spot for him. He holds the grappling advantage, moves well on the feet for his age, and his fight IQ is as sharp as ever.
Adrian Luna Martinetti makes his UFC debut after that absolute war against Mark Vologdin on the Contender Series, which earned him some well-deserved hype. He brings good striking and strong body kicks, but I think the experience gap is just too significant here. Grant has been in too many tough fights to be fazed by a debuting prospect, and I expect him to mix things up effectively and control this one throughout.
Final Pick: Davey Grant by Decision
Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez
Moving onto the lightweight division, we have Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez. Garcia doesn’t have any standout wins on his resume, but he’s a solid, well-rounded fighter who brings relentless pressure, good wrestling, and clean boxing technique. He’s durable and has the ability to wear opponents down over the course of a fight.
Hernandez is the more dynamic fighter though, with fantastic movement and serious pop in his hands. He thrives when he can draw opponents in and counter them, and I think Garcia’s aggressive, pressure-heavy style plays right into that. The better wins and experience are on Hernandez’s side too, and I think he has more than enough tools to catch Garcia coming in and make him pay for being too aggressive.
Final Pick: Alexander Hernandez by KO/TKO
Norma Dumont vs Joselyne Edwards
Next up is a really interesting women’s matchup. Norma Dumont has faced high-level competition and will be the more technical fighter on the feet, with the ability to stick and move against Joselyne Edwards, who can get a little wild at times. That said, Edwards has looked fantastic recently and is riding a four-fight finishing streak, bringing real danger both on the feet and on the ground. Dumont has the experience and technique, but Edwards has simply been the more impressive fighter lately, and I think her power and bigger moments will be enough to take a close decision.
Final Pick: Joselyne Edwards by Decision
Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal
Finally, the main event is a significant fight in the featherweight division. Aljamain Sterling is a former bantamweight champion, and we know exactly how good he is. His move up to 145 has gone well and he looks physically strong, particularly with his wrestling. He’s a genuinely awkward fighter to prepare for — switching stances, throwing a lot of kicks, and controlling opponents in the clinch. Once he gets the fight to the ground, he’s about as good as it gets.
Youssef Zalal has been excellent in his second UFC run. He’s an extremely technical striker with speed, a well-rounded kicking game, and the ability to mix in knees and elbows effectively in close. His footwork is tricky and he moves around constantly, which could make it difficult for Sterling to latch onto him. He’s also shown he’s no pushover on the ground, with solid scrambling ability and some sneaky submission skills.
That said, this is a hard fight to predict. I think Zalal is the cleaner, more effective striker, but I’m not sure we’ve ever seen him face a grappler of Sterling’s caliber over five rounds. Sterling’s physicality and relentless clinch and ground work may just be too much to deal with for an extended period. It’s close, but I’m siding with Sterling to grind this out with his grappling and clinch work.
Final Pick: Aljamain Sterling by Decision
