Huge fight night this week in Perth, Australia, as my GOAT Carlos Prates returns to take on Jack Della Maddalena. I’m a little nervous about this one, but regardless of how it plays out, this should be an incredibly entertaining fight. The rest of the card is stacked with interesting matchups as well, so there’s a lot to look forward to. Last week at the Apex I went 9-4 on predictions, including a few crafty underdog picks I was pretty proud of. The card itself wasn’t the most entertaining, but Aljamain Sterling looked fantastic and could very well be in title contention at featherweight soon. Now let’s get into this week’s breakdowns — all my predictions will be clearly marked in bold after each breakdown.
Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele
Starting off the card bright and early, we have an interesting lightweight scrap to kick things off. Dom Mar Fan makes his UFC debut off a solid Road to UFC performance earlier this year, and he looks like a genuinely fun fighter. He’s violent wherever the fight goes, always looking to create damage in every position, which makes him a tricky puzzle to solve for any opponent.
Kody Steele returns after taking some time off following his first professional loss in his UFC debut. He brings a fantastic ground game with high level wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, pushes a high pace, and his striking is improving even if it’s still a work in progress. That said, I think Mar Fan’s ability to create damage in any position gives him the edge here. He’s active even off his back, so even if Steele is able to get him down, I think Mar Fan finds the better moments in what should be a competitive fight.
Final Pick: Dom Mar Fan by Decision
Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo
Next up is the return of Jonathan Micallef, and I’m genuinely excited about this one. I was high on him after his debut, but his performance against Oban Elliott made me even more impressed. His striking isn’t the prettiest, but he makes it work and has some dangerous kicks in his arsenal. Where Micallef really separates himself though is on the ground, and that’s where I expect this fight to be decided.
Themba Gorimbo probably holds the striking advantage here, but honestly I’m not sure what to make of him anymore. He showed some promise early on but has been struggling recently, and we’ve seen him get outgrappled before — against opponents far less dangerous than Micallef on the ground. I think Micallef is able to get this fight where he wants it and finds another finish. He’s been really impressive so far and I don’t see that changing here.
Final Pick: Jonathan Micallef by Submission
Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz
A tricky fight to break down here. Ben Johnston makes his UFC debut out of Eternal MMA and appears to have solid Muay Thai striking with the ability to mix in grappling effectively, and he has a good number of submissions on his record — though none of it has been tested at UFC level competition. Wes Schultz had a rough debut against the dangerous Damian Pinas but has overall faced higher level opposition than Johnston and brings a genuinely dangerous ground game with serious submission threats. On the feet he isn’t pretty — he throws a lot of looping shots and leaves openings — but I don’t think this fight stays standing for long. Despite the question marks surrounding this matchup, I think Schultz gets Johnston down early and uses his experience and superior ground game to find the finish.
Final Pick: Wes Schultz by Submission
Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales
This is a genuinely competitive matchup and a tough one to predict. Colby Thicknesse is a main training partner of Alexander Volkanovski, which speaks to the level he’s operating at in the gym, but he hasn’t quite translated that into consistent UFC performances yet. On the feet he has solid footwork and the ability to stick and move, even if his striking can look a little unorthodox at times. At his core though, he really wants to get the fight to the ground and that’s where he’s most dangerous.
Vince Morales hasn’t put together a great record in the UFC but he has been in there against solid competition and has real experience to draw from. He has a sneaky submission game that should keep him competitive if the fight hits the mat, and his boxing makes him probably the more dangerous striker on the feet. That said, I’m taking the risk and going with Thicknesse here. I think he can secure enough takedowns to rack up control time, stay safe on the feet with his movement, and grind out a decision. It’s also just hard to trust Morales at this point in his career.
Final Pick: Colby Thicknesse by Decision
Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert
I won’t spend too much time on this one because I think we’ve all accepted the reality here. Jacob Malkoun should be able to get this done early. Gerald Meerschaert just doesn’t have the durability he once did, and the days of him surviving early adversity and grinding out comeback wins seem to be behind him. Malkoun’s striking looked noticeably improved in his last performance, and I think he has more than enough to find the early TKO over a severely diminished GM3.
Final Pick: Jacob Malkoun by KO/TKO
Junior Tafa vs Kevin Christian
I’m pretty sure I’ve said this before his last four fights, but how is Junior Tafa still in the UFC? I understand he’s an entertaining striker, but at some point someone needs to remind him this is MMA and his opponents are allowed to take him down. His ground game is essentially non-existent and his submission defense is a genuine liability. With all that said, he is a legitimately dangerous kickboxer with serious power in his hands.
His opponent Kevin Christian isn’t particularly impressive either. He has some submissions on his record but his ground game isn’t anything special, and for a light heavyweight he carries almost no striking defense. As much as it pains me to say it, I think Tafa gets this done by early knockout. Christian is far too hittable and I think Tafa puts him away before the fight ever hits the ground, where things could get complicated for him.
Final Pick: Junior Tafa by KO/TKO
Cam Rowston vs Robert Bryczek
Really good middleweight matchup here. Cam Rowston is on a nice run and brings the classic City Kickboxing style with a big frame to match, though he can be hittable at times and his striking defense may become an issue. He also has a grappling advantage in this matchup that we haven’t seen him utilize much in the UFC yet, which could be an interesting wrinkle. Robert Brycek on the other hand is a durable brawler who has been in some entertaining fights and has enough power to find the knockout if given the opportunity. I think this ends up being a close fight with moments on both sides, but I trust the game planning from Rowston and the City Kickboxing team, and the momentum he’s carrying into this one gives him the edge.
Final Pick: Cam Rowston by Decision
Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland
We are being blessed with another Tai Tuivasa fight, even though he has lost six in a row. Believe it or not, I actually think this is a winnable matchup for him. He may not be taking his career too seriously at this point, but I think he’s got one more win left in him, and there is truly nothing like the energy Australian fans bring when Tuivasa fights. I think he feeds off that crowd energy and actually puts something together here. He still has serious power in his hands and the durability to absorb shots and keep coming forward.
Louie Sutherland steps in on relatively short notice and hasn’t looked particularly good in the UFC so far, though he has faced some tough competition. He likes to brawl on the feet and has some power of his own, but he leaves far too many openings and his wrestling isn’t anything special. I think Tuivasa is more than capable of defending the takedowns and keeping this fight where he wants it. Give me Tuivasa by knockout, one more shoey for the fans, and hopefully a feel good ending to what has been a rough stretch to close out his career.
Final Pick: Tai Tuivasa by KO/TKO
Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić
Another heavyweight matchup here, this time featuring the legendary Shamil Gaziev. The memes surrounding this guy are hilarious, but in all seriousness he’s a decent heavyweight with a powerful right hand and some solid opponents on his resume. The problem is he can get pretty predictable with his striking, and when he tries to mix in grappling and clinch work it tends to drain his cardio quickly. Brando Peričić on the other hand has looked like a serious problem in his recent fights — for a heavyweight, he is a surprisingly technical striker with finishing ability. This will be a step up in competition for him, but I think he’s more than ready for it. I like Peričić to find a big counter shot and get Gaziev out of there.
Final Pick: Brando Peričic by KO/TKO
Marwan Rahiki vs Ollie Schmid
This one came together on short notice, but I’m glad Marwan Rahiki stayed on the card because he’s a really fun up and coming fighter to keep an eye on. He’s extremely young with a dynamic skillset, mixes his targets effectively, and looks very dangerous. His opponent Ollie Schmid doesn’t have a ton of name value — he’s fought for Eternal MMA and did take a loss there, which is worth noting. He seems to have decent kickboxing but can get backed up against the fence, which could be a problem here. Rahiki has fought the better competition and is the more dynamic fighter, and I think he finds the knockout finish.
Final Pick: Marwan Rahiki by KO/TKO
Tim Elliot vs Steve Erceg
We have a really interesting flyweight matchup here and as a Steve Erceg fan, I’m excited for this one. Tim Elliot just keeps finding ways to win, and his recent submission over Kai Asakura was genuinely impressive. He’s an awkward guy to deal with — his striking is wild and unorthodox but can be effective, and his grappling is at a high level. He’s the kind of veteran who never really goes away.
That said, I think Steve Erceg gets the job done here. After a tough stretch following his title fight with Alexandre Pantoja, he snapped the skid with a win over Ode Osbourne and looks to be back on track. Erceg has solid fundamental boxing, some real power, and I think people tend to forget just how good his grappling actually is — he stayed competitive with Pantoja on the ground, which is no small thing. I think he has a lot of success on the feet here because Elliot is a much worse striker than most of Erceg’s recent opponents, and if it hits the ground, Erceg has more than enough to stay safe from Elliot’s submission attempts and control the fight. I’m expecting a decision win for Erceg.
Final Pick: Steve Erceg by Decision
Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld
I’ll keep this one short and sweet because I think we all know how it ends. Beneil Dariush is an extremely skilled fighter, but his durability has become a real concern — he got folded by Benoit Saint Denis and dropped early by Renato Moicano, and I just don’t see him being able to hang in there anymore. Quillan Salkilld is dangerous, exciting, and clearly someone the UFC wants to build up, and he has the highlight reel knockouts to back up the hype. He has a solid ground game as well, but I think he takes the path of least resistance here and puts Dariush away in the first round before he gets a chance to get anything going.
Final Pick: Quillan Salkilld by KO/TKO
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates
Finally, we have arrived at the main event, and I am beyond excited for this one. This is a fascinating clash of striking styles — pure boxing against Muay Thai — and before I get into it, I’ll be upfront that Carlos Prates is my favorite fighter, so there may be a slight bias here. I’ll do my best to give an honest take regardless, because this is a genuinely great fight to break down stylistically.
Jack Della Maddalena returns to Australia after a really disappointing performance against Islam Makhachev. It’s hard to hold it against him too much given the level of opponent, but he didn’t have a single meaningful moment in that fight, which is a tough look. This is a huge bounce-back opportunity though, and at least he won’t have to deal with any grappling here. JDM has some of the cleanest boxing in the sport today — his combinations are absolutely beautiful, his pressure is relentless, and his volume is genuinely dangerous even if he doesn’t quite have one-punch knockout power. That said, looking back at his fight with Belal Muhammad, JDM pieced him up but was also getting hit throughout. If Belal was landing shots, Prates will too, and the consequences this time are far greater. I’m also curious about his mindset coming in after being completely unable to impose his game against Makhachev. Will he overextend himself trying to make a statement in front of his home crowd?
On the other side, Carlos Prates is one of the most exciting fighters on the planet right now, knocking everyone out and always delivering must-watch fights. His Muay Thai style is absolute cinema — dynamic attacks, dangerous knees up the middle, and spinning elbows that come out of nowhere. I truly believe a win here puts him next in line for a title shot. The most terrifying thing about Prates is that it only takes one shot, and it doesn’t matter if you’ve never been knocked out before — if he lands clean, the fight is over. Now, it is worth addressing the Ian Garry fight, because Prates does have flaws. Garry out-kickboxed him fairly comfortably over five rounds, and while Prates had the biggest moment late in the fifth, it was a rough night overall. JDM is a very different matchup, and Prates has surely learned from that experience, but it’s worth keeping in mind. On the positive side, Prates will have a decent reach advantage here, his teep kick should be there all night, and those knees are very scary.
In the end, I’m siding with Carlos Prates to land the fight-ending shot. The consequences of getting hit by him are just too severe, and it’s hard to pick against a guy who has looked this special. I think JDM will come out with something to prove in front of his home crowd after losing the belt the way he did, and ultimately I think that will be his downfall. If he gets too aggressive and lets his emotions get the better of him, Prates will make him pay. He has too many weapons, too much discipline, and too much finishing ability — he’s an absolute beast in that octagon and I cannot pick against him.
Final Pick: Carlos Prates by KO/TKO
