Back to the Apex after an absolutely massive night in New Jersey — UFC 328 delivered, and more importantly, so did I. Yeah, I finished 6-7 on the card, but you can have those six losses when I’m cashing a Sean Strickland underdog ticket in the main event. Gut said Strickland, I went with it, and I’d have never forgiven myself if I hadn’t. There were some disappointing performances scattered throughout the night, but the main event more than made up for it, and I’m walking away from 328 feeling pretty good. Anyway, we’re back in the Apex this week, so dial down your expectations for atmosphere, but the card has some interesting matchups worth breaking down. As always, my final pick for each fight will be marked in bold.
Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari
Kicking off the card with a WMMA matchup. I missed breaking these down, truly. All jokes aside, Shauna Bannon is actually a fun watch. She’s got a karate-like style built around blitzing in and out, and while she isn’t the most technical fighter on the roster, that unpredictability can give opponents real problems. She also looks good off her back, which gives her a path to winning even if the fight hits the ground. She was finished in her last outing against Sam Hughes, so there’s a question mark there, but her opponent Nicolle Caliari still hasn’t picked up a UFC win. Caliari is the more traditional fighter of the two and can mix things up well — I’ll give her the ground advantage — but I think the explosiveness and eye-catching offense of Bannon wins out here. She should be able to do more damage on the feet, and if Caliari drags it to the ground, Bannon off her back is a problem.
Final Pick: Shauna Bannon by Decision
Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule
This should be a competitive matchup in the flyweight division. Daniel Barez has not been very active recently, but he is a dangerous fighter with solid boxing, real power, and a strong submission game. He has shown the ability to finish fights in multiple ways, though his tendency to slow down as the fight progresses is a concern. Luis Gurule, on the other hand, has yet to put everything together in the UFC. He is a durable, high-pressure fighter who is fairly well-rounded, but he does not stand out in any particular area and can look a bit slow at times. Gurule’s toughness could allow him to make this competitive if the fight extends into the later rounds, but I favor Barez because he is the more dangerous and explosive fighter. I expect Barez to land the cleaner and more impactful shots early and do enough to build a lead before Gurule can find his rhythm.
Final Pick: Daniel Barez by Decision
Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana
This is another WMMA matchup that feels very competitive and could realistically go either way. Alice Ardelean appears to be the more well-rounded fighter overall, with solid striking and the ability to mix in wrestling when needed. She is not the most dynamic finisher, but she is steady and capable of controlling stretches of the fight. On the other side, Polyana Viana is very dangerous on the ground, with a strong guard and comfort working off her back, and she is not afraid to engage in grappling exchanges. However, her recent form has been a concern, as she has struggled to consistently get wins. In this matchup, I think Ardelean’s ability to stay active and win minutes will be the difference. Viana may find success in isolated grappling moments, but I expect Ardelean to stay busier, avoid extended danger on the ground, and edge out a close decision.
Final Pick: Alice Ardelean by Decision
Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski
This is a surprisingly interesting matchup and a very winnable fight for Cody Brundage. When Brundage is at his best, he can be a dangerous underdog. He has legitimate power in his hands, better striking than he often gets credit for, and a solid wrestling base. He has also had competitive moments against several strong prospects, so he should not be overlooked. That said, Andre Petroski appears to have the more reliable skill set. Petroski is an excellent wrestler and should have a clear advantage if he is able to get the fight to the mat. His striking is not particularly polished, but he uses calf kicks effectively and has found ways to make it work. Brundage is dangerous early, but he can be difficult to trust over the course of a full fight. I expect Petroski to survive the early pressure, lean on his wrestling, and gradually take control as Brundage begins to slow down, leading to a decision victory.
Final Pick: Andre Petroski by Decision
Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti
The final women’s fight on the card features a compelling stylistic matchup between Ketlen Vieira and Jacqueline Cavalcanti. Vieira is extremely dangerous on the ground and likely needs to get this fight to the mat to maximize her advantage. On the feet, she throws with power but can overextend and is often low volume, which leaves opportunities for a cleaner striker to outwork her. Cavalcanti has looked excellent standing, using sharp footwork and effective in-and-out movement to score consistently from range. While she is not known for having huge power, she does a great job of landing the cleaner and more frequent shots. She has also shown solid takedown defense, which will be critical in this matchup. If Cavalcanti can keep the fight standing and defend Vieira’s takedown attempts, I expect her to control the striking exchanges and cruise to a clear decision victory.
Final Pick: Jacqueline Cavalcanti by Decision
Tommy Gantt vs Artur Minev
In the next fight, Tommy Gantt makes his long-awaited UFC debut against a late-notice replacement. Gantt is undefeated and coming off an impressive performance on the Contender Series. He has a strong collegiate wrestling background and trains with Daniel Cormier. His takedown entries are fantastic, and once he secures top position, he does a great job of advancing to submissions while mixing in effective ground-and-pound. His opponent is also undefeated and making his UFC debut. From the limited footage available, he appears to have solid boxing and some power in his hands. The concern, however, is that he has not faced a grappler of Gantt’s caliber, and Gantt is almost certain to test him with his wrestling early. Gantt has faced tougher competition, and although he is relatively new to MMA, his wrestling should be a major advantage in this matchup. I expect him to take the fight to the ground quickly and secure an early submission over an opponent who has yet to prove himself against this level of competition.
Final Pick: Tommy Gantt by Submission
Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan
Moving onto the light heavyweight division, we have a fight that I’m sure every UFC fan has been waiting for in Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan. In all seriousness though, Tokkos is a legitimate grappler for this division, capable of controlling from top position or finishing with a submission, and while his striking is technical enough, he has shown a tendency to get pressured back to the fence. Erslan on the other hand is one of those guys who carries a ton of power on the feet and has had moments against decent competition, but his takedown defense is a liability he hasn’t cleaned up. The path to victory for Tokkos writes itself — survive the early exchanges, get Erslan to the mat, and go to work. I don’t see Erslan having the defensive wrestling to stop that game plan consistently enough to steal this one.
Final Pick: Tuco Tokkos by Decision
Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams
This is a very intriguing matchup and one that is genuinely difficult to predict. Nikolay Veretennikov is a highly technical striker with a sharp jab and a strong kicking game from range. Although he has not found much success in the UFC so far, several of his fights have been highly competitive. He has shown some vulnerability against grapplers, but that may not be a major issue in this matchup. Across from him is Khaos Williams, one of the hardest hitters in the division. Williams throws with tremendous speed and power, and while his striking can be wild at times, he has the kind of knockout ability that can end a fight instantly. He can mix up his attacks effectively on the feet, though grappling is not a major part of his game. This feels like a fight that could turn into an all-out war, but I give the edge to Williams because he is the more dangerous fighter and I trust his finishing ability more. Veretennikov’s technical approach should keep things competitive, but I think Williams eventually lands a big shot and scores the knockout.
Final Pick: Khaos Williams by KO/TKO
Timmy Cuamba vs Bernardo Sopaj
In this matchup between two young bantamweights, Timmy Cuamba takes on Bernardo Sopaj in what should be a competitive fight. Cuamba is a sharp striker who throws clean straight punches, mixes in kicks effectively, and uses solid footwork to manage distance. He also showed encouraging grappling ability in his fight against ChangHo Lee, which adds another layer to his game. Sopaj is a well-rounded fighter with power, crisp boxing, and a capable ground game, but he has shown a tendency to slow down as fights progress. He could find success if he mixes up his attack and utilizes his wrestling, but I believe Cuamba has looked like the more polished and consistent fighter overall. I expect Cuamba to do the cleaner work on the feet, defend the majority of Sopaj’s takedown attempts, and take over as Sopaj begins to fade late in the fight.
Final Pick: Timmy Cuamba by Decision
Modestas Bukaukas vs Christian Edwards
Another late addition to the card sees Modestas Bukauskas take on short-notice UFC debutant Christian Edwards. I was fairly high on Bukauskas heading into his last fight against Nikita Krylov, but that matchup did not go his way. This, however, is a significant step down in competition. Bukauskas is a versatile and patient striker who can be dangerous when he opens up, and he has historically shown solid takedown defense. Edwards is an imposing athlete at 6’5 and tends to rely on his wrestling, using takedowns to set up effective ground-and-pound. While Edwards has some physical tools, this feels like a very favorable matchup for Bukauskas. He is the far more polished striker, has faced much stronger competition, and should be able to control the fight and earn a comfortable victory.
Final Pick: Modestats Bukaukas by KO/TKO
Malcom Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz
Malcolm Wellmaker returns after suffering the first loss of his career last year, but I am still extremely high on him. That defeat to Ewing has aged well, and considering the fight was accepted on very short notice, I do not view it as a negative. Wellmaker possesses some of the most impressive power in the bantamweight division, and when he lands clean, he can put anyone away. The main concern is that he can sometimes spend too much time waiting for the perfect shot, which can cause him to lose minutes on the scorecards, as we saw in the Ewing fight. Still, taking that first loss should only help him grow as a fighter. Juan Diaz made a statement on the Contender Series with a spectacular spinning elbow knockout and showed off a dynamic, well-rounded skill set along with impressive toughness. Even so, this feels like a very difficult UFC debut for him. I expect Wellmaker to make the necessary adjustments, come in with a sharper game plan, and use his power to find a knockout and get back in the win column.
Final Pick: Malcom Wellmaker by KO/TKO
Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos
I cannot wait for this fight because Doo Ho Choi always brings excitement. Although he has not been very active in recent years, Choi has been in the UFC for a long time and carries a wealth of experience against high-level competition. Even in his losses, he has typically been finished only by powerful and dangerous opponents. Choi remains one of the most entertaining strikers in the division, with crisp boxing, a devastating right hand, and the toughness to battle back even when taken down. He is the type of fighter you can never count out because he is always capable of changing a fight with one clean shot.
Daniel Santos enters this matchup with strong momentum and is a very dangerous opponent. He brings an aggressive Muay Thai style, throws a wide variety of strikes, and does an excellent job of mixing in takedowns to keep opponents guessing. That well-rounded attack could create problems for Choi, especially if Santos is able to dictate the pace. Still, I am leaning toward Choi in what should be a competitive fight. I think his sharper boxing and proven durability will allow him to land the cleaner shots in key moments and edge out a close victory.
Final Pick: Dooho Choi by Decision
Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa
This main event is outstanding, and this shorter breakdown does not do justice to how good this matchup actually is. Arnold Allen is returning to the Octagon much sooner than usual, which is a positive sign. His recent losses have come against elite competition, and he had some impressive moments in his most recent fight against Jean Silva. Allen is one of the most technical strikers in the featherweight division. While he is not known as a one-shot finisher, his footwork is excellent, he mixes his attacks well, and he consistently makes smart decisions in the cage. He also has outstanding cardio, which becomes even more valuable in a five-round fight, and his durability is proven given that he has never been knocked out.
Melquizael Costa enters this fight with a ton of momentum. His finish over Dan Ige was incredibly impressive and showcased just how dangerous he is. Costa is a threat everywhere. On the feet, he is creative and uses a wide variety of kicks that have been highly effective, and on the ground, he is a very slick submission artist. The biggest question mark is his cardio, as he has shown signs of slowing down in some fights. That could be a major issue against a high-paced, disciplined fighter like Allen, especially over five rounds.
In the end, I am siding with Costa because I believe he is the more dangerous fighter both on the feet and on the mat. His kicking game could force Allen to wrestle more than he wants to, and that may create opportunities for Costa to attack with submissions. His guillotine, in particular, is a solid weapon, and I think that could be the path to victory. Allen’s cardio and experience make it scary, but Costa’s momentum and finishing ability are hard to ignore. As long as he manages his energy well, I think Costa finds a submission and continues his impressive run.
Final Pick: Melquizael Costa by Submission
