The wait is finally over—we have arrived at UFC Freedom 250 at the White House. This is one of the most unique events in UFC history, and I am excited to see how both the presentation and the outdoor setting come together on fight night. While the card features only seven fights, it is absolutely loaded from top to bottom, with every matchup carrying significance and intrigue. Last week at the Apex, I went 7-5 on my predictions, with a few results not going the way I expected, but this card presents a great opportunity to bounce back. Hopefully, we can put together a much stronger performance and maybe even come away with a perfect slate of picks. With that said, let’s dive straight into the breakdowns, starting with the opening fight of the night and working our way to the lightweight title fight in the main event. As always, my official prediction will be clearly marked in bold at the end of each breakdown.
Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia
We are starting this card with an outstanding featherweight matchup that could be one of the closest fights on the entire event. Diego Lopes enters the fight after falling short in his second title bid against Alexander Volkanovski, but outside of those championship setbacks, Lopes has looked phenomenal throughout his UFC run. He is an explosive and dangerous striker with excellent pocket boxing, proven durability, and some of the sharpest counterstriking in the division. His willingness to trade in close range is made even more effective by his toughness and ability to absorb damage. Lopes also holds a decent grappling advantage in this matchup. His Jiu-Jitsu and submission game are elite, and while he has not had to rely heavily on them recently, they remain a major weapon against an opponent who has not been thoroughly tested on the ground. If there is a weakness in Lopes’ game, it is that he can sometimes follow opponents rather than cutting off the cage efficiently, but his ability to capitalize with counters often makes up for it.
Across from him is Steve Garcia, who has quietly put together one of the most impressive win streaks in the division. While the level of competition has not been quite as high as what Lopes has faced, Garcia has done everything asked of him and continues to improve every time he steps into the Octagon. His power is undeniable, and his boxing has become increasingly polished. He starts fights quickly, establishes his jab early, and once he finds his range, he becomes extremely accurate and efficient with his shot selection. There is a strong argument that Garcia is the more technical striker overall, but this is by far the biggest test of his career. Against a fighter as dangerous and experienced as Lopes, patience will be critical. Getting reckless in exchanges could be a costly mistake.
At the end of the day, I have to side with Lopes in what has all the makings of a Fight of the Night contender. Garcia’s power and technical boxing make him a live threat throughout the fight, but I believe Lopes’ durability, grappling, and overall experience will be the difference. When these two inevitably find themselves exchanging in the pocket, I trust Lopes to do the cleaner and more impactful work. His counterstriking, clinch game, and ability to mix in knees and elbows should create problems for Garcia, and if the fight ever hits the mat, Lopes will have a major advantage with his submission arsenal. Garcia is absolutely capable of making this competitive, but Lopes simply has more paths to victory. Between his proven toughness, well-rounded skill set, and dangerous finishing ability both on the feet and on the ground, I think Lopes finds a way to emerge victorious in a highly entertaining battle.
Final Pick: Diego Lopes by KO/TKO
Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukas
This is probably my least anticipated fight on the card and arguably the one with the lowest stakes, but that does not mean it cannot be competitive. I’m not a big fan, but Bo Nickal remains an interesting prospect at middle weight because of his elite wrestling pedigree and strength on the ground. We already know how dangerous he is once he gets fights to the mat, so the more interesting development has been his growth as a striker. In his last outing, Nickal looked significantly improved on the feet and scored an impressive head-kick knockout, showing that he has made meaningful adjustments since suffering his first career loss to Reinier de Ridder. He still carries plenty of power, but he appears less reliant on loading up with big overhands and is becoming a more complete fighter. The one area that still concerns me is the clinch, where he has shown vulnerability when backed up against the fence and forced to deal with knees and elbows in tight quarters.
Kyle Daukaus has looked rejuvenated during his second stint in the UFC. The biggest improvement in his game has been his boxing, which appears much cleaner and more confident than it did during his first run. He has been finding success on the feet and even scoring finishes, which makes this matchup more interesting than it may seem at first glance. In fact, striking could be the area where Daukaus has the advantage. If he comes forward aggressively, mixes in clinch work, and forces Nickal to fight off the fence, he could create some difficult moments. Daukaus also possesses a dangerous submission game that could help him threaten scrambles or work his way back to his feet if taken down. However, unlike de Ridder, his bottom game has not consistently shown the ability to neutralize elite top control, which could become a major issue against a wrestler of Nickal’s caliber.
Ultimately, I think Nickal gets the job done. While I can see Daukaus having success in certain moments, especially early if he pushes the pace and tests Nickal’s striking and clinch defense, the wrestling advantage is simply too significant to ignore. Nickal appears to be improving rapidly following his first loss, and that setback may have been exactly what he needed for his development. There is certainly pressure on him here, as this feels like a fight the UFC expects him to win, but I think he rises to the occasion. Daukaus is dangerous enough to make things interesting, but over the course of three rounds I expect Nickal to implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, control large portions of the fight on the ground, and earn a clear decision victory.
Final Pick: Bo Nickal by Decision
Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler
I have mixed emotions about this matchup. On one hand, I am a huge fan of Mauricio Ruffy and believe he is one of the most exciting strikers in the sport today. On the other hand, it is hard not to feel for Michael Chandler, who spent years pursuing a fight with Conor McGregor only to end up facing a younger, arguably more dangerous version of that style. Ruffy has been outstanding in the UFC, showcasing elite timing, sharp counterstriking, and a dynamic arsenal of attacks on the feet. His style shares a lot of similarities with McGregor’s, but he brings his own creativity and precision to every exchange. I was especially impressed with how much he appeared to improve following his first UFC loss, and his knockout victory over Rafael Fiziev only reinforced how dangerous he can be. Training alongside Alexander Volkanovskishould also continue to strengthen areas like his takedown defense, making him an even more complete fighter.
As for Chandler, this is an incredibly difficult matchup at this stage of his career. There is a path to victory through wrestling, especially considering Benoît Saint Denis was able to take Ruffy down and find a submission. However, Chandler is no longer in his athletic prime, and he does not present the same level of submission threat. On the feet, this looks like a major disadvantage for him. Ruffy will have a significant reach edge, superior accuracy, and far more weapons to work with at range. Chandler’s aggressive style has always made him entertaining, but it has also left him vulnerable to counters and defensive mistakes. Against a striker as precise and dangerous as Ruffy, those openings could be costly. In the end, I think Ruffy has the tools to neutralize Chandler’s offense, punish his entries, and ultimately score a highlight-reel finish in what feels like a very difficult stylistic matchup for the former title challenger.
Final Pick: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO
Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis
The latest addition to this card is actually a very entertaining matchup. Josh Hokit has brought plenty of attention to fight week with his outspoken personality and his back-and-forth with Ilia Topuria and Alex Pereira at the first press conference. While his personality can be over the top at times, the heavyweight division could certainly use more fighters who generate interest outside of the octagon. Beyond the trash talk, Hokit is a legitimate prospect. He is one of the faster athletes in the division, possesses impressive explosiveness for a heavyweight, and showed a lot in his wild battle with Curtis Blaydes. With a wrestling background and dangerous ground-and-pound, Hokit has multiple tools that can make him successful at the highest level.
Standing across from him is fan favorite Derrick Lewis. I was extremely disappointed in Lewis’ last performance, especially after picking him to defeat Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Once he struggled to land his power shots and deal with the speed of his opponent, he appeared to become frustrated and never truly found his rhythm. To be fair, Lewis is no longer in his prime, but you have to imagine he comes into this fight with a little more motivation. He was requested to be on this card by the president, and he has made it clear that he is not a fan of Hokit. The story with Lewis has always been the same: if he lands a clean right hand, he can knock out anyone in the world. There is a reason he owns the UFC record for knockouts. The question is whether he gives up when he inevitably faces adversity.
At the end of the day, I have a hard time trusting Lewis after what we saw in his last outing. The knockout threat will always be there, and heavyweight MMA only takes one punch to change everything, but we have repeatedly seen Lewis struggle against opponents who can exceed him in athleticism and speed. Hokit appears to hold advantages in movement, volume, cardio, and overall activity. He can throw combinations, maintain a higher pace, and if needed, lean on his wrestling to control the fight. Lewis’ biggest advantage is still his power, but outside of that, Hokit seems to have more ways to win. I would not be shocked if Lewis finds a fight-changing punch, but I think Hokit’s pace and well-rounded skill set eventually wear him down and lead to a stoppage victory.
Final Pick: Josh Hokit by KO/TKO
Sean O’Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi
This next fight could have implications for the bantamweight title picture moving forward. It also feels like an opportunity for the UFC to put Sean O’Malley in a showcase spot and help rebuild some momentum after his recent title setbacks. O’Malley is coming off a competitive victory over Song Yadong, but it seems clear that the promotion would love to see a vintage Suga Sean performance on a stage this big. Stylistically, this matchup sets up well for him. O’Malley should have a significant speed advantage, and his footwork remains one of the best weapons in his arsenal. Whether he is moving forward or fighting off the back foot, he does an excellent job controlling distance and finding openings. His striking is incredibly accurate, and he continues to prove that he can maintain a high level of effectiveness deep into fights, often having some of his best moments in the later rounds.
Across from him is Aiemann Zahabi, a fighter who deserves credit for putting together an impressive run and consistently finding ways to win. Zahabi is a smart fighter with a high fight IQ and a strong team behind him, and he almost always enters the cage with a solid game plan. However, when comparing skill sets, it is difficult to identify an area where he clearly holds an advantage over O’Malley. He is not known for exceptional speed, overwhelming power, or elite grappling, though he is undeniably tough and resilient. I also thought he came up short in his most recent fight against Marlon Vera despite getting the decision. If Zahabi is going to pull off the upset, his best path likely involves wrestling early and forcing a grappling-heavy fight. The problem is that he has historically been a slow starter, and that is a dangerous habit against someone as dangerous and precise as O’Malley.
In the end, I think O’Malley wins this fight convincingly. The speed difference alone is going to create major problems for Zahabi, and O’Malley’s accuracy should allow him to consistently land the cleaner and more damaging shots. Zahabi deserves respect for how far he has come and for the toughness he has shown throughout his career, but this is a massive step up in competition. O’Malley has faced and succeeded against a much higher level of opposition, and he simply brings too many weapons to the table. Zahabi may survive for a while through grit and determination, but I think O’Malley eventually finds a big shot that changes the fight. This feels like a matchup designed to get him back on track, and I expect him to deliver an impressive performance with a late stoppage or dominant decision victory.
Final Pick: Sean O’Malley by KO/TKO
Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane
This co-main event is easily the fight I am most excited for on the entire card. The stakes are massive, as Alex Pereira attempts to accomplish something no UFC fighter has ever done by winning a title in a third weight class. While this is currently for an interim championship, it does not diminish how historic the achievement would be. Pereira entered the UFC as a middleweight, captured gold at light heavyweight, and is now making the jump to heavyweight. It is still incredible to think that someone with Pereira’s frame and power was ever able to make 185 pounds, let alone become champion there. This is a fascinating stylistic matchup and one that could be highly competitive. As a fan of Pereira, I am obviously hoping he gets the job done, but there are definitely challenges awaiting him against one of the division’s most skilled strikers.
Starting with Pereira, I have very little doubt that his power will translate to heavyweight. The bigger question is whether carrying additional weight affects his speed and movement. Even if there is a slight adjustment period, Pereira brings a level of technical striking that very few heavyweights can match. He has spent years competing against some of the best strikers in combat sports and has consistently proven himself on the biggest stages. His calf kicks are among the most devastating weapons in MMA, and he does an incredible job disguising his attacks. Whether it is a crushing leg kick, a perfectly timed counter left hook, or a head kick that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Pereira constantly punishes opponents for even the smallest mistakes. His ability to set traps and capitalize on openings makes him one of the most dangerous fighters in the sport.
On the other side is Ciryl Gane, one of the most unique athletes in the heavyweight division. Unlike many heavyweights who rely primarily on power, Gane wins with movement, technique, and footwork. He is incredibly elusive for a man his size, switches stances effectively, and uses his kickboxing background to frustrate opponents who struggle to cut off the cage. Those skills could be particularly important against Pereira, especially when it comes to limiting the impact of the leg kicks. Gane has also spent his entire UFC career competing against elite heavyweights, which gives him valuable experience in this weight class. However, my biggest question is whether he has faced a striker with Pereira’s combination of power, precision, and technical ability. Many of Gane’s best performances have come against opponents who were dangerous but far less dynamic and polished as strikers.
At the end of the day, I am picking Pereira to make history. Gane’s movement and technical kickboxing will create challenges early, but I believe Pereira’s power, timing, and ability to make adjustments will ultimately be the difference. The calf kicks should be a major factor throughout the fight, and once Pereira begins slowing Gane’s movement, the openings for his counters and combinations will become more frequent. Pereira has consistently shown that he can compete with and defeat elite strikers, and I do not think he is giving up enough size for that to become a major issue at heavyweight. He has the frame, the power, and the experience to succeed in this division. Most importantly, he has repeatedly proven that he rises to the occasion on the biggest stages. I think Pereira finds the knockout, captures interim heavyweight gold, and adds another historic chapter to one of the greatest combat sports careers we have ever seen. Chama!
Final Pick: Alex Pereira by KO/TKO
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje
Finally, we have arrived at the main event, where Justin Gaethje gets the opportunity to represent the United States against one of the most feared and complete fighters in the sport. Ilia Topuria returns to headline this historic event, and every time he steps into the cage it feels like must-see television. Looking at this matchup, Topuria appears to hold advantages almost everywhere outside of pure size, and that has never been a factor that has slowed him down before. He is the faster, more technical boxer, possesses some of the most devastating power in the UFC, and also brings an elite grappling background to the table. While he has not needed to rely heavily on his wrestling and submissions recently, those skills remain a major weapon, especially against an opponent who has shown vulnerability in grappling exchanges throughout his career. That said, I do not think Topuria will need to wrestle much here. He has knocked out some of the most durable fighters in the sport, and I believe his clearest path to victory is once again through his striking.
As exciting as it would be to see Gaethje pull off a massive upset on the White House lawn in front of his home crowd, the stylistic matchup is extremely difficult for him. Gaethje remains one of the most entertaining fighters in MMA and still possesses dangerous weapons, particularly his brutal leg kicks. Those kicks could be a factor because Topuria carries a heavy lead leg in his boxing stance, making it an obvious target. Gaethje may also look to attack with high kicks, as Topuria was caught by one earlier in his career, but that vulnerability has not been seen in years. The problem is that many of Gaethje’s best offensive tools, including his uppercut and pocket combinations, require him to operate in the exact range where Topuria is at his most dangerous. Topuria’s timing, accuracy, and boxing are simply on another level, and Gaethje has always been a hittable fighter despite his toughness. When you combine that with Topuria’s grappling advantage and Gaethje’s history of being finished on the ground, it becomes difficult to find many realistic paths to victory for the American. Gaethje will have his moments, but I ultimately think Topuria’s elite skill set shines through as he finds another knockout and continues his reign as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world.
Final Pick: Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO
